Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-03-16 10:00Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol inventory has entered a destocking channel as the supply has significantly decreased, with a large reduction in port inventory and good提货 supported by downstream demand along the Yangtze River, but fewer imported cargoes arriving at ports. Short - term foreign vessel arrivals are expected to remain at a low level. The demand side should focus on the changes in the export - turning expectation and the downstream demand in coastal areas. It is expected that the port methanol inventory may continue to decline this week. The short - term industry operation is expected to remain stable. Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the short - term methanol price is expected to fluctuate sharply, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2837 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 32 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol is 126 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton. The position of the main methanol contract is 586,749 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 2,544 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 14,254 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 7,617 lots. The number of warehouse receipts for methanol is 11,317, with a week - on - week decrease of 196 [3]. 2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2820 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2170 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 42.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 630 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 92.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 17 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton. The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 351 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 510 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 US dollars/ton. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 389 euros/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 159 US dollars/ton, with no change [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.13 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.12 US dollars [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 97.28 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 9.56 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 34 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.51 tons. The methanol import profit is - 112.27 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 113.39 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 1.734 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 316,400 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 523,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 29,300 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 90.15%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.5% [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 37.6%, with a week - on - week increase of 8.88%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 4.13%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.28%; the acetic acid operating rate is 85.4%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.29%; the MTBE operating rate is 68.94%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.22%; the olefin operating rate is 84.08%, with no change. The methanol - to - olefin on - paper profit is - 454 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 158 yuan/ton [3]. 6. Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 70.82%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.78%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 53.2%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.06%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 71.89%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.14%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 71.89%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.14% [3]. 7. Industry News - As of March 11, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 523,100 tons, a decrease of 29,300 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 5.30%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 265,300 tons, a decrease of 29,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 10.10%. As of March 11, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.3128 million tons, a decrease of 130,700 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 95,600 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 35,100 tons. The methanol port inventory decreased significantly this week, and only 91,500 tons of foreign vessels were unloaded during the period. Recently, the production capacity loss caused by domestic methanol maintenance and production reduction is more than the production output of the restored production capacity, and the overall output has decreased. The inland enterprises destocked last week. As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 82.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.82%. The second - phase plant of Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei had a short - term shutdown, and the operation of the MTO industry decreased [3].