瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the contract is in a strong and volatile state with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The fundamentals show that the supply is relatively abundant while the demand is stable. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the contract is in a volatile state with increasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The fundamentals indicate stable supply and slightly warming demand. It is suggested to trade with a light position by going long on dips and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum, the contract is in a volatile state with decreasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The fundamentals suggest increasing supply and flat demand. It is advisable to trade with a light position by going long on dips and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 25,170 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,965 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 3,439 US dollars/ton, down 94 US dollars; the closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 23,830 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan [2]. - Spreads: The spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai aluminum is - 230 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; that of alumina is - 95 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; that of cast aluminum alloy is - 115 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2]. - Positions: The position of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 309,830 lots, up 117,111 lots; that of the alumina main contract is 267,270 lots, down 12,490 lots; that of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 5,383 lots, down 296 lots [2]. - Inventories: The LME aluminum cancelled warrants are 172,500 tons, unchanged; the total alumina inventory is 430,237 tons, up 27,469 tons; the LME aluminum inventory is 445,300 tons, down 2,000 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory on the SHFE is 416,425 tons, up 21,927 tons; the cast aluminum alloy inventory on the SHFE is 62,731 tons, down 4,121 tons [2]. - Other Indicators: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum is - 61,931 lots, up 1,726 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.32, up 0.25; the registered warrants of cast aluminum alloy on the SHFE are 53,440 tons, down 871 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 24,790 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,655 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the country is 25,100 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum is 25,100 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 1,270 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 380 yuan/ton, down 540 yuan; the basis of alumina is - 310 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [2]. - Premiums and Discounts: The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME aluminum premium/discount is 30.83 US dollars/ton, down 3.02 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina: The national alumina production is 801.08 tons, down 12.72 tons; the national alumina capacity utilization rate is 83%, down 1%; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 tons, up 25.33 tons; the alumina supply - demand balance is 28.9 tons, up 2.32 tons; the national alumina export volume is 21 tons, up 4 tons; the national alumina import volume is 22.78 tons, down 0.46 tons [2]. - Aluminum Scrap: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal waste is 19,000 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal waste is 18,400 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; the Chinese import volume of aluminum scrap and waste is 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; the Chinese export volume of aluminum scrap and waste is 70.8 tons, down 0.73 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Electrolytic Aluminum: The import volume of primary aluminum is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum is 37,575.3 tons, down 15,472.39 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,540.2 tons, unchanged; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate is 98.93%, up 0.04% [2]. - Aluminum Products: The aluminum product production is 613.56 tons, up 20.46 tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 42.96 tons, down 11.04 tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 27.08 tons, down 39.41 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.55 tons, down 0.51 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - Automobile: The automobile production is 341.15 vehicles, down 10.75 vehicles [2]. - Real Estate: The national real estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.44 [2]. - Aluminum Alloy: The aluminum alloy production is 182.5 tons, unchanged; the total built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 21.77%, down 0.06%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 31.46%, down 0.54%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum main contract is 23.72%, down 0.0286; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.63, up 0.0093 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From January to February this year, high - frequency data such as consumption and investment rebounded. Commodity consumption and service consumption increased by 5.7% and 1.1% year - on - year respectively. Some investment physical workload indicators such as the construction machinery operating rate improved significantly, and the number of capital investment events in cutting - edge fields increased significantly [2]. - The average retail price of passenger cars in 2021 was 165,000 yuan, rising to 184,000 yuan in 2024, dropping to 170,000 yuan in 2025, and rising to 180,000 yuan in February 2026 [2]. - The "14th Five - Year Plan" outline was recently released, proposing to give full play to the role of special additional deduction policies and increase the deduction of individual income tax [2]. - From January to February, the fixed - asset investment of the State Grid Corporation totaled 75.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 80.6% [2]. - The US core PCE in January increased by 3.1% year - on - year, the highest level since March 2024, and the month - on - month increase remained at 0.4%. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the next monetary policy meeting, and rising inflation may delay the time window for resuming interest rate cuts [2].