瑞达期货贵金属期货日报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market continued its weak and volatile trend today. The main contract of Shanghai Gold 2606 fell 2.04% to 1118.34 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver 2606 fell 6.34% to 20301 yuan/kilogram. The current market is still repeatedly gaming around two main lines. The continuous escalation of the Middle East situation and the risk in the Strait of Hormuz have not subsided, and international oil prices have remained above $100, intensifying market concerns about the recurrence of US inflation, which has further postponed the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and restricted the further unilateral upward movement of gold and silver. The US economy shows characteristics of stagflation with "slowing growth but persistent inflation". The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in March and postpone the first interest rate cut this year to around September. The current real interest rates and policy expectations still suppress precious metals. The current correction of gold prices may be due to short - term profit - taking by long positions and capital rebalancing and position adjustment in the high - price range. If the US - Iran situation remains tense, the safe - haven premium will support the gold price center. In February, global physical gold ETFs had net inflows for the ninth consecutive month, indicating that institutional allocation funds are still resilient. Precious metals still have certain value for bargain - hunting allocation. It is recommended to focus on short - term range - bound trading and long - term bargain - hunting layout [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai Gold contract decreased by 14.7 yuan/gram, and the closing price of the main Shanghai Silver contract was 20301 yuan/kilogram with a decrease of 622 yuan/kilogram. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold decreased by 8146 hands, while those of Shanghai Silver increased by 48 hands to 94,528 hands. The trading volume of the main Shanghai Gold contract increased by 35929 hands, and that of the main Shanghai Silver contract was 723,961 hands with an increase of 204003 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged, and that of Shanghai Silver increased by 4142 kilograms to 330,708 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased by 16.48 yuan, and the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 20,015 yuan with a decrease of 1589 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai Gold contract decreased by 1.82 yuan/gram, and the basis of the main Shanghai Silver contract decreased by 967 yuan/gram to - 286 yuan/gram [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 4.29 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15,460.18 tons with a decrease of 78.88 tons. The non - commercial net long positions of gold in CFTC increased by 2987 contracts, and those of silver increased by 1240 contracts to 163132 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold decreased by 0.19 tons, and the total annual supply of silver increased by 482 tons to 32,056 tons. The total quarterly demand for gold increased by 79.57 tons, and the total annual demand for silver decreased by 491 tons to 35,716 tons [2] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index increased by 0.76 to 100.50, and the 10 - year US Treasury real yield increased by 0.03 to 1.92. The VIX volatility index decreased by 0.10, and the CBOE gold volatility index increased by 1.22 to 32.31. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price increased by 0.01, and the gold - silver ratio increased by 1.33 to 60.27 [2] 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump said that Iran has expressed willingness to negotiate a cease - fire, but the current conditions are "not good enough", so the US will not reach an agreement to end the war with Iran for the time being. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that Iran has never requested a cease - fire and will continue to defend until Trump realizes it is an "illegal and unwinnable war". The US core PCE in January increased by 3.1% year - on - year, the highest level since March 2024, and the month - on - month increase remained at 0.4%, in line with market expectations. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the next monetary policy meeting, and if inflation pressure continues to rise, it may further postpone the time window for resuming interest rate cuts. The revised data released by the US Department of Commerce showed that the annualized quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the fourth quarter of last year was 0.7%, significantly lower than the initial value of 1.4%. In addition, the initial value of the month - on - month change in durable goods orders in the US in January was flat, far lower than the market expectation of a 1.1% increase. The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in March dropped from 56.6 in February to 55.5, the lowest in three months. Consumers expect prices to rise by 3.4% in the next year, lower than the expected 3.7%. The number of job openings in the US JOLTS in January increased by 396,000 to 6.946 million, higher than the expected 6.75 million, indicating an improvement in the labor market [2] 3.6 Key Points of Attention - March 16, 20:30, US March New York Fed Manufacturing Index; March 16, 21:15, US February Industrial Production Monthly Rate; March 17, 22:00, US February Conference Board Leading Index; March 18, 18:00, Eurozone February CPI Monthly and Annual Rates; March 18, 20:30, US February PPI Monthly and Annual Rates; March 18, 22:00, US February Factory Orders Monthly Rate [2]