2026年1-2月经济数据点评：开局平稳向好

Economic Overview - The macroeconomic data for January-February 2026 shows a positive start, with industrial added value increasing by 6.3% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points from December 2025[1] - Total import and export value grew by 18.3% year-on-year, with exports rising by 19.2%[1] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8% year-on-year, with catering revenue up by 4.8%[1] Production Sector - Industrial production saw a significant increase, with the industrial added value growing by 6.3% year-on-year, up from 5.2% in December 2025[2] - The manufacturing PMI for February was 49.0%, indicating a slight contraction, but large enterprises maintained a PMI of 51.5%, suggesting resilience in industrial production[2] Service Sector - The service production index recorded a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, up from 5.0% in December 2025[3] - Key sectors such as information technology services and financial services grew by 10.1% and 7.0% respectively, indicating strong internal momentum in the service industry[3] Demand Side - Retail sales reached 860.79 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, significantly up from 0.9% in December 2025[4] - The government has initiated measures to boost consumption, including a special bond issuance of 250 billion yuan to support consumer goods[5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 1.8% year-on-year, reversing a decline of 3.8% in 2025[6] - Infrastructure investment surged by 11.4% year-on-year, driven by local special bond issuance and project acceleration[6] Foreign Trade - The total value of goods trade reached 7.73 trillion yuan, with exports increasing by 19.2% and imports by 17.1% year-on-year[7] - Private enterprises' imports and exports grew by 22.8%, indicating enhanced vitality in foreign trade[7] Risks - Potential risks include intensified US-China tensions, geopolitical uncertainties, and challenges in policy implementation[8]