瑞达期货国债期货日报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On March 16, 2026, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened collectively, with the yields of maturities below 7Y rising by about 0.6 - 1.75bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y rising by 1.9bp and 1.8bp respectively, reported at 1.84% and 2.31%. Treasury bond futures also weakened collectively, with the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL falling by 0.04%, 0.08%, 0.11%, and 0.43% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 fell back to around 1.45% and fluctuated [4]. - In the domestic fundamental aspect, the social financing credit in February was higher than market expectations. Under the effect of the Spring Festival date difference, the support of government bonds for social financing weakened. Credit showed a structural characteristic of weak residents and strong enterprises, with weak credit expansion of residents and improved enterprise investment willingness under policy guidance. In the first two months of 2026, China's exports increased significantly due to the global manufacturing prosperity and export rush. The CPI in February rebounded unexpectedly, mainly affected by the Spring Festival date difference. The PPI increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow, with the capacity governance of key industries showing continuous effects [4]. - Overseas, the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the end of the war depends on two conditions: ensuring that the war does not repeat and paying compensation. The US President said that the US military will conduct "severe air strikes" on Iran next week. The tension in the Middle East continues to escalate, and the war may evolve into a long - term and large - scale one. Affected by this, international energy prices and related supply chain prices face upward pressure. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was slightly lower than expected, but the pressure on the labor market was not alleviated. As energy prices continue to rise, the risk of "stagflation - like" in the US economy is increasing, and the prospect of the Fed's interest rate cut is more uncertain [4]. - Overall, the domestic price level in February rose unexpectedly, and combined with the continuous fermentation of the Iranian situation, the expectation of imported inflation has strengthened marginally. The rhythm of the year - on - year return to positive of PPI in the future will accelerate, and the adjustment pressure of inflation factors on the bond market is emerging. In addition, under the self - regulatory mechanism of inter - bank deposit pricing, the interest rates of more than 10 trillion deposits may be lowered, which is expected to drive the short - term interest rates to decline further. With the interweaving of long and short factors, interest rates will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and the long - and short - end trends will diverge [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices and Volumes: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.120, 105.885, 102.432, and 110.630 respectively, with decreases of 0.11%, 0.08%, 0.04%, and 0.43% respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 95024, 73191, 37358, and 86755, with increases of 24937, 20328, 12767, and 19595 respectively [2]. - Futures Spreads: The spreads of TL2606 - 2609, T2606 - 2609, TF2606 - 2609, and TS2606 - 2609 were 0.27, 0.03, 0.17, and - 0.03 respectively, with changes of - 0.02, + 0.01, - 0.02, and - 0.01 respectively. Other spreads such as T06 - TL06, TF06 - T06, etc. also had corresponding changes [2]. - Futures Positions: The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 281604, 171673, 75792, and 131699 respectively, with increases of 1152, 3014, 3552, and 983 respectively. The net positions of the top 20 long and short positions of each contract also changed to different degrees [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - CTD Bonds: The net prices of some CTD bonds such as 230012.IB, 250025.IB, etc. had corresponding fluctuations, among which 250024.IB increased by 0.0043 [2]. - Active Treasury Bonds: The yields of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y active treasury bonds were 1.2600%, 1.3700%, 1.5500%, 1.6825%, and 1.8225% respectively, with changes of 1.25bp, - 0.50bp, 0.75bp, 1.25bp, and 1.15bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - Short - term Interest Rates: The silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates were 1.3679%, 1.4856%, and 1.4800% respectively, with changes of 2.24bp, 1.35bp, and - 1.73bp respectively. The Shibor overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates were 1.3200%, 1.4410%, and 1.4950% respectively, with changes of - 0.10bp, - 1.60bp, and 0.00bp respectively [2]. - LPR Rates: The 1y and 5y LPR rates were 3.00% and 3.5% respectively, with no change [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 1373 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 485 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The State Council Executive Meeting discussed and passed the "Division of Key Work of the State Council in 2026" and studied the establishment of a negative list management mechanism for local fiscal subsidies [2]. - The central bank announced that in the first two months of this year, RMB loans increased by 5.61 trillion yuan, and the increment of social financing scale was 9.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 316.2 billion yuan. At the end of February, M2 increased by 9% year - on - year, and the stock of social financing scale increased by 8.2% year - on - year. In February, the average interest rates of newly issued loans for enterprises and newly issued housing loans for individuals were both about 3.1% [2][3]. - Vice - Premier He Lifeng led a delegation to France from March 14th to 17th to hold the sixth round of China - US economic and trade consultations. The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce responded to the US 301 investigation, urging the US to correct its wrong practices and resolve issues through dialogue and consultations [2].