需要准备接受油价在更长时期维持在更高位置

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between the US and Iran may persist, leading to long - term high oil prices, and in extreme cases, oil prices may exceed the 2008 record of $147 [1][7][9] - Rising oil prices will drive the chemical industry into a bull market, the agricultural product bull market has emerged, while the black - series commodities may enter a long - term bull market later [1][11][18] - High oil prices have limited impact on China and may boost the export of domestic new energy products [1][12][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Middle East Situation Update - The US military launched a "violent air strike" on military targets on Iran's Kharg Island, but Iran's oil facilities on the island are intact and oil exports are normal [3] - Iran threatens to destroy US - related facilities if its infrastructure is attacked, and the US is considering bombing oil facilities on Kharg Island and sending more troops and warships to the Middle East [3] - There is news that Iran may allow limited oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz with oil cargo settled in RMB, which could weaken the US influence [3] 3.2 Reasons for Long - Term High - Oil - Price Threat - There is little possibility of negotiation between the US and Iran as Iran's cease - fire conditions are unacceptable to the US and Israel [7] - Iran has lost trust in the US and Israel due to previous bombings during negotiations, and it may choose to fight [8] - Blocking the Strait of Hormuz and raising oil prices are beneficial for Iran, increasing the revenue of the Revolutionary Guard [8] - If the US takes extreme actions, it will lead to higher oil prices, and the current losses have become a sunk cost, with the risk of both sides taking extreme measures [9] 3.3 Impact of High Oil Prices on Commodities - Chemical products have generally risen significantly after the increase in oil prices, and a long - term high oil price will start an upward cycle for them [11] - High oil prices increase the cost of soybean planting, and combined with possible yield declines, the price of agricultural products like soybeans may rise [11] - Black - series commodities have weak demand expectations and may be the last to enter the bull market [11] 3.4 Impact of High Oil Prices on China - China's CPI and PPI are in a low state, and the impact of high oil prices on them is relatively controllable and may help achieve price policy goals [12] - China has diverse oil import channels, and the interruption of Middle East oil supply will have limited impact [16] - High oil prices are beneficial for the export of China's electric vehicles and new - energy power - generation equipment, offsetting the negative impact of oil price increases [17][18]