【冠通期货研究报告】：尿素周报：关注春耕，谨慎追涨-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market shows a slight over - increase due to the combination of farming season and the Middle - East situation. The main market theme is to ensure supply and stabilize prices during the spring plowing peak season. The short - term trend is expected to stabilize, and the opportunity for a significant future increase depends on the export quota situation after the spring plowing [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market Dynamics - Last week, the market sentiment was high. The rise of futures and international urea prices boosted spot trading enthusiasm. Most regions remained stable over the weekend. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan ranged from 1,810 to 1,840 yuan/ton [5] 3.2 Futures Dynamics - Last week, on Monday, the urea futures opened with a daily limit due to geopolitical conflicts and then fell back in the afternoon. On Tuesday, the energy - chemical sector of commodities cooled, with a nearly 4% decline during the day. The price trend fluctuated in the following days. As of March 16, the main May contract of urea closed at 1,900 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the settlement price on March 9. The weekly trading volume was 3,940.11 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,178.76 million tons, and the open interest was 862.86 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15.22 million tons. The futures increase was less than the spot increase, and the basis weakened. As of March 16, the 05 - contract basis was - 30 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 15 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 39 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 57 yuan/ton. On March 16, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,055, a week - on - week increase of 5,195 [8][9][11] 3.3 Urea Supply - side - Last week, the weekly urea output decreased. From March 5 to 11, the weekly output was 1.5376 million tons, a decrease of 0.03 million tons from the previous period, with a week - on - week decline of 0.02%. The average daily output was 219,600 tons. Coal - based weekly output decreased by 0.5%, and gas - based weekly output increased by 2.2%. Small - particle weekly output decreased by 0.44%, and large - particle weekly output increased by 1.66%. It is expected that three enterprises will resume production and three will stop production in the next cycle. On March 16, 2026, the national daily urea output was 220,500 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 88.38%. The coal price was strong but lacked support from domestic demand. The price of LNG and synthetic ammonia increased last week, and the price differences between synthetic ammonia and urea, and methanol and urea increased [15][17][19] 3.4 Urea Demand - side - As of March 13, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was 3,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The raw material prices increased, driving up the compound fertilizer price. Although the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories increased, the inventory decreased. The high demand still corresponded to high supply. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine from March 7 to 13 was 53.35%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points from the previous period. The urea enterprise inventory decreased, and there was no obvious inventory - building pressure [22][23][24] 3.5 International Market - The ongoing Middle - East conflict has affected international urea supply, especially in India. International urea prices have been rising, and the future increase pace depends on the Middle - East situation. As of March 12, the FOB prices of small - and large - particle urea from various regions increased significantly week - on - week [26][28]