沥青周报-20260316

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to see a simultaneous increase in supply and demand, with significant cost support. Given the tense situation in the Middle East and the uncertainty of the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the expectation of refinery production cuts has increased. It is predicted that the asphalt price will follow the strong performance of crude oil prices in the near future, with large fluctuations. Investors should participate with caution and pay attention to the development of the Middle East situation [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In the supply side, last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0% week-on-week, 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, being at a relatively low level in recent years. In March 2026, the estimated domestic asphalt production is 2.187 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 251,000 tons or 13.0%, and a year-on-year decrease of 43,000 tons or 1.9% [3] - After the Spring Festival holiday last week, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 9% week-on-week, still lower than the level at the end of January [3] - Last week, refineries in Shandong resumed stable production. After the price increase, the downstream's enthusiasm for stocking increased, and the shipment volume increased significantly. The national shipment volume increased by 12.67% week-on-week to 176,100 tons, but it was still at a relatively low level [3][25] - The asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat week-on-week and was still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [3][35] - The asphalt price in Shandong adjusted downward, and the basis dropped to a relatively low level. The import of Venezuelan crude oil in China is expected to still be significantly lower than before the US intervention. With the current attacks by the US and Israel on Iran, the supply of raw materials in the Middle East will be affected. The market is worried about the shortage of raw materials in domestic refineries in March [3] - A small amount of Iranian asphalt is imported into China. Asphalt imported from the Middle East, such as the UAE and Iraq, accounts for half of the total asphalt imports, but only about 6% compared to China's asphalt production [3] - This week, Dongming Petrochemical resumed production, and the asphalt operating rate increased slightly. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand gradually recovered. The asphalt market saw a simultaneous increase in supply and demand, with significant cost support [3] Price and Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,970 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract rose to -119 yuan/ton, being at a relatively low level [15] Operating Rate - Ningbo Keyuan and Xinjiang Fakangni stopped asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0% week-on-week, 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, being at a relatively low level in recent years [20] Demand - From January to February 2026, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the actual completed fixed asset investment in the road transport industry was -0.6%, an improvement from -6.0% from January to December 2025, but still showing a year-on-year negative growth. From January to February 2026, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the completed fixed asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 11.4%, a significant improvement from -2.2% from January to December 2025 [30] - As of the week ending March 13, after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 9% week-on-week, still lower than the level at the end of January [3][30] Inventory - As of the week ending March 13, the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat at 17.7% compared to the week ending March 6, and was still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [35]