银河期货农产品日报-20260316

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Although the fundamentals of apples are strong, with low cold - storage apple inventory and poor quality, and high cost of May contracts' warehouse receipts, the upward momentum and time for the May apple contract are insufficient. As the key growing season of new - season apples approaches, the market will focus on the production of new - season apples, which are expected to increase. It is recommended to short the October contract on rallies in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - Spot Prices: The Fuji apple price index is 110.41, down 0.15 from the next - working - day forecast. Prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remain stable. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.90, up 0.04 [2] - Futures Prices: AP01 is at 8597, up 62 from yesterday's close; AP05 is at 10064, up 66; AP10 is at 8733, up 90. There are also changes in spreads like AP01 - AP05, AP05 - AP10, and AP10 - AP01 [2] - Basis: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against AP01, AP05, and AP10 all show declines [2] Second Part: Market News and Views - Apple Market News - As of March 12, 2026, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory is 499.72 million tons, a decrease of 27.81 million tons from last week and 24.34 million tons from last year, a 4.6% reduction [7] - In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples is about 15.65 million tons, a 28.63% increase from the previous month and a 26.76% increase from the same period last year. The import volume is 0.31 million tons, a 21.31% increase from the previous month and a 20.02% increase from the same period last year. The annual cumulative import volume in 2025 is 11.68 million tons, a 19.72% increase from the previous year [7] - The main apple market in the producing area remains stable. There are many merchants in the producing area, starting to stock up for the Tomb - sweeping Festival. The cold - storage packaging volume is okay, and some cold - storage facilities show reluctance to sell. The market arrivals increase, and the mainstream price remains stable [7] - In Shandong, the price of late - maturing paper - bagged Fuji in the cold - storage is stable. There are merchants packaging in the cold - storage, mainly in the main - producing area. The trading volume in the cold - storage is small. Foreign - trade merchants mainly buy medium - and small - sized fruits. In Qixia, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruits is 3.0 - 3.5 yuan per catty. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price is stable, with an increase in the number of merchants mainly buying high - quality goods. The supply of high - quality goods is scarce, and the procurement is difficult. In Luochuan, the mainstream price of 70 and above cold - storage paper - bagged Fuji is 4.0 - 4.5 yuan per catty [7] - Trading Logic: The May contract has limited upward momentum and time. As the key growing season of new - season apples approaches, the market will focus on new - season apple production, which is expected to increase. It is recommended to short the October contract on rallies in the short term [5] - Trading Strategy - For the single - side strategy, it is recommended to exit and wait and see for the May contract and short the October contract on rallies [8] - For the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [8] - For the option strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [8] Third Part: Relevant Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts such as the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, AP contract main - contract basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrivals in some markets, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple out - bound volume [10][11][14]