养殖产业链日报：近月宽松明显-20260316

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is expected to remain strong in the near term, and it is advisable to go long at low prices [1] - The corn fundamentals remain strong, and it is recommended to replenish stocks or buy on dips [2] - For eggs, although the short - term supply and demand are loose, there is an obvious downward expectation for the inventory in March, and a low - long strategy is suggested [3] - The pig market is in a stage of bottom - grinding oscillation, with short - term pressure on capacity clearance, and the far - month contracts may have some support [4][5] Summary by Related Catalog Soybean - Northeast soybean spot prices are stable overall, with tight supply of high - quality soybeans and firm prices [1] - There is little remaining soybean in the grassroots level, and farmers are reluctant to sell at a low price. After the Spring Festival, the restocking demand of traders supports high soybean prices [1] - Although the Brazilian soybean shipment recovery over the weekend alleviated the concerns about near - month arrivals, the tight supply situation has not been fully resolved [1] - Zhuochuang Information believes that soybean prices still have room to rise in March, and the price inflection point may occur in early April [1] Corn - In Northeast China, the post - festival grain sales progress is slower than in previous years, and the remaining grain inventory is at a low level [2] - Deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventory levels, and large purchasing enterprises such as CGS and COFCO are increasing their purchasing efforts, driving up regional prices [2] - As the temperature rises, the enthusiasm for grassroots grain sales increases, and the grain rights are gradually transferred to the trading link [2] - Affected by the rising transportation costs and continuous losses of downstream enterprises, the price increase in Northeast China has narrowed [2] - In Shandong, the daily arrival of corn is persistently low, and the enterprises' restocking demand is increasing. The market shows the characteristics of "price increase but volume decrease" [2] - The corn purchase price in Shandong has approached 1.25 yuan per catty, and some enterprises' quotes have reached 1.26 yuan per catty [2] Egg - As of the end of February 2026, the national laying hen inventory was 1.35 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, which restricts the rapid and significant rise of egg prices [3] - Due to the low egg - laying hen replenishment volume from October to November 2025, the number of newly - laid hens from March to April 2026 will decrease significantly [3] - With the improvement of breeding profitability, the slaughter of laying hens will accelerate, and the national laying hen inventory will decline significantly from April to May [3] - The sharp rise in feed raw materials squeezes the profit of laying hens and accelerates industry capacity clearance [3] Pig - As of the end of February 2026, the inventory of commercial pigs in China was 37.3205 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.79% and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.91% [4] - The inventory of breeding sows at the end of February was 5.0204 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01% and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.45% [4] - The commercial pig出栏 volume at the end of February was 9.9223 million, a month - on - month decrease of 12.95% and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.35% [4] - The average weight of commercial pig出栏 this week is 123.17 kg, which is stable week - on - week, increasing the supply pressure [4] - The pig出栏 accelerates in March, but the demand remains weak, and the feed cost rises, worsening the breeding profit and forcing short - term capacity clearance [5] - Some third - party institutions predict a slight reduction in the inventory of breeding sows in February, and the far - month contracts may have some support, but the supply - demand pattern will not change until the official data is significantly adjusted [5]