【原木周报（LG)】:原现货价格回落，关注外盘报价上涨能否落地-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the prices of some specifications of logs in Taicang area have declined. The main reasons are the weak demand in the spot market and the increase in the arrival volume. There is a possibility that the post - holiday spot price increase expectation will be falsified. However, due to the long - term trend of the US - Iran war, there is a strong upward expectation and certainty for the overseas log quotations. The existing overseas quotations have been raised to 119 - 122 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 805 - 825 yuan/m³ in spot size and 870 - 890 yuan/m³ in futures size. Although this quotation has been accepted by domestic traders, whether the significantly increased overseas quotations can be smoothly transmitted to the domestic market remains to be observed. The current price of the optimal delivery product 5.9 small A in Shandong area is 740 yuan/m³, equivalent to 800 yuan/m³ on the futures market, and the futures price has a certain discount. But the main contract LG2605 is still far from the delivery month, and the overall trading logic is dominated by expectations. In the past three years, the spot price of logs has a high probability of falling from March to May. In summary, the log futures price is affected by the "upward expectation of overseas quotations" and the "sluggish spot market", and there is no consistent trading theme. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 790 - 810. It is recommended to wait and see in terms of operation. The focus in the future should be on the implementation of overseas quotations and the spot price [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Some specifications of log prices in Taicang area have fallen, mainly due to weak spot market demand and increased arrival volume. The post - holiday price increase expectation may be false. Overseas log quotations have a strong upward expectation, but whether they can be transmitted to the domestic market is uncertain. The futures price has a discount, and the main contract is far from the delivery month. The trading logic is expectation - dominated. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the 790 - 810 range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. Future focus should be on overseas quotation implementation and spot price [5]. - Log main data: The closing price of the main contract is 792.5, a decrease of 0.94% from the previous period; the total position is 12765, a decrease of 9.53%; the position of the main contract is 8209, a decrease of 11.72%. The total inventory is 313.3, an increase of 4.87%; Shandong inventory is 195.5, an increase of 1.82%; Jiangsu inventory is 91.1, an increase of 12.25%. The total outbound volume is 33, an increase of 455%; Shandong outbound volume is 24, an increase of 349.06%; Jiangsu outbound volume is 7. New Zealand's weekly shipping volume is 90, a decrease of 10%; weekly shipping volume is 350, a decrease of 7.89%; export profit is - 34, a decrease of 4.78. The New Zealand CFR quotation is 121, an increase of 7.08%; the spruce CFR quotation is 125, unchanged. The trader's import profit is - 46.5, a decrease of 13.29%; the processing profit is - 44.6, unchanged [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Log futures position: As of March 13, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts is 12765 lots, a decrease of 9.5% from the previous week; the position of the main log futures contract is 8209 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 11.7% [12]. - Spot price: As of March 13, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A radiata pine are 710/770/860 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A are 740/800/950 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A radiata pine are 730/780/810 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A are 780/810/870 yuan/m³ [16]. 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Log import volume: In December 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs was about 1.7654 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 20.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.45%. In 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs was about 23.9187 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.41%. In December 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs from New Zealand was about 1.3048 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 27.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.02%. In 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs from New Zealand was about 18.1002 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.51% [22]. - New Zealand log shipping and shipping volume: From March 7 - 13, 2026, a total of 12 ships with 450,000 cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, an increase of 1 ship and 10,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week. Among them, 9 ships with 340,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters. In the past four weeks, a total of 49 ships with 1.87 million cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, an increase of 21 ships and 820,000 cubic meters compared with the same period last month. Among them, a total of 36 ships with 1.35 million cubic meters were directly shipped to China, an increase of 13 ships and 500,000 cubic meters compared with the same period last month [28]. - Trade profit: As of March 9, 2026, the overseas (CFR) quotation range of New Zealand radiata pine logs in March is 117 - 122 US dollars/JAS square, an increase of 5 US dollars/JAS square compared with last month, and the transaction of this quotation is relatively good [35]. - Domestic log inventory: As of March 6, the total domestic coniferous log inventory is 3.13 million cubic meters, an increase of 140,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 4.68%; the radiata pine inventory is 2.51 million cubic meters, an increase of 90,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 3.72%; the North American timber inventory is 260,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 8.33%; the spruce/fir inventory is 160,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week. Among them, the total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports is 1,955,000 cubic meters, an increase of 1.82% from the previous week; the total coniferous log inventory in Jiangsu ports is 910,800 cubic meters, an increase of 12.25% from the previous week [40]. - Domestic port log outbound volume: From March 2 - 8, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China is 33,300 cubic meters, an increase of 455% from the previous week; among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in Shandong ports is 23,800 cubic meters, an increase of 349.06% from the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in Jiangsu ports is 7,000 cubic meters [42]. - Wood square price and processing profit: As of March 15, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong is 1240 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week; the wood square price in Jiangsu is 1310 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week; the processing profit in Shandong is - 44.4 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week; the processing profit in Jiangsu is - 5 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week [45]. - Downstream: As of March 13, 2025, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate is 6.9, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%; the Baltic Dry Index is 2028, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% [49].