生猪周报（LH）：底部震荡，静待反转-20260316

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral investment rating for the pig industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The pig market is at the bottom and oscillating, waiting for a reversal. The speculative demand for secondary fattening and carcass segmentation continues, and the supply side's inventory accumulation pattern is confirmed. The spot price has entered the bottom - seeking stage, while the futures are expected to enter the stage of actively reducing weight and destocking, and the futures market may oscillate to find the bottom [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: It is neutral. In February, the progress of pig sales was slow, and the supply was postponed again. Group enterprises' pig sales returned to normal, the social side passively held back pigs, the volume of passive carcass segmentation and warehousing increased, and the secondary fattening and speculative demand accelerated to enter the market, confirming the inventory accumulation pattern [3] - Demand: It is bearish. The Spring Festival peak season has passed, and the off - season demand has dropped significantly. The speculative demand in January was advanced, and the negative feedback of the peak - season increment falling short of expectations emerged. The speculative demand such as secondary fattening and carcass segmentation has overdrawn the subsequent demand, and the market has a strong expectation of subsequent demand vacuum [3] - Inventory: It is bullish. The social side passively held back pigs, the volume of passive carcass segmentation and warehousing increased, and the post - festival pig weight is at the highest level in the same period in recent years and continues to increase [3] - Basis/Spread: It is neutral. The national average spot price of ternary pigs is about 10,130 yuan/ton (10.13 yuan/kg in Henan). The closing price of the LH2605 contract is 11,150 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 970 yuan/ton (weakening month - on - month, and the discount range is expanding) [3] - Profit: It is neutral. Pig - raising enterprises are still in a loss state, and the pig - grain ratio is still below the break - even point. The spot price is running weakly, and the loss may continue [3] - Valuation: It is neutral. Currently, the price of the LH2605 contract is at a discount to the spot, the number of warehouse receipts is at the highest level in recent years, and there is still room for actively reducing weight, destocking, and the spot price to find the bottom [3] - Macro and Policy: It is neutral. There is uncertainty in the macro - environment. The domestic policies of stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand are still being promoted, which support the long - term pork demand to some extent, but there are still short - term disturbing factors [3] - Investment Viewpoint: It is neutral. The speculative demand for secondary fattening and carcass segmentation continues, the supply - side inventory accumulation pattern is confirmed, and the spot price has entered the bottom - seeking stage. The futures are expected to enter the stage of actively reducing weight and destocking, and the futures market may oscillate to find the bottom [3] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, it is also recommended to wait and see. Attention should be paid to the demand for secondary fattening and feed prices [3] Part Two: Pig Fundamental Data - This part presents multiple sets of pig - related data charts, including the prices of different types of pigs (standard pigs, fat pigs, piglets) in Henan, the price of front - three - grade白条, the inventory of sample sows, the number of newborn healthy piglets and commercial pig sales in five - province samples, the survival rates in the delivery room and fattening stage, the pig inventory structure, the average weight of pigs for sale and after slaughter, the price difference between standard and fat pigs, the price difference between the north and the south, the monthly sales volume of leading enterprises, the daily slaughter volume, the slaughter enterprise's operation rate, fresh - sales rate, storage rate, the wholesale volume of白条 in markets, the profit of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets, the pig - grain ratio, and the price of fattening pig feed [5][9][11] Part Three: Pig Capital - Side Data - This part shows the basis of different contracts (11 - contract, 09 - contract, 07 - contract, 05 - contract) and the spread between different contracts (03 - 05, 01 - 05, 11 - 01, 01 - 03) [63][69]