利率债周报：上周债市长短端走势分化，收益率曲线延续陡峭化-20260316

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market showed a divergence in short - and long - end trends, with the yield curve continuing to steepen. The long - bond yields were under pressure to rise, while the short - end yields generally declined. This was due to the continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, the emergence of imported inflation pressure, and the release of better - than - expected inflation and trade data in February. However, the short - bonds were supported by the rumor of the potential reduction in inter - bank deposit rates [2]. - This week (the week of March 16), the bond market will still fluctuate weakly, and yields are likely to rise. The expansion of the US - Iran conflict, the increasing concern about stagflation, the positive financial data on the previous Friday, and the favorable macro data from January - February will all have a negative impact on the bond market. Although the expectation of lower inter - bank deposit rates is beneficial to short - bonds, the tax period, the reduction of repurchase volume, and the limited short - end carry - trade space will limit the decline of short - bond yields [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Bond Market Review Secondary Market - Last week, the bond market was generally weak and volatile, with long - bond yields rising significantly. The 10 - year Treasury futures main contract fell 0.30% in the whole week. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose 3.33bp compared with the previous Friday, and the 1 - year Treasury yield fell 0.90bp, with the term spread continuing to widen [3]. - On different days: On March 9, the bond market was pressured by the US - Iran conflict and high inflation data; on March 10, it recovered slightly due to the fall in oil prices; on March 11, market sentiment weakened; on March 12, it recovered significantly due to the rumor of inter - bank deposit rate regulation; on March 13, the yield of medium - and long - term bonds was weak, while short - bonds were strong [4]. Primary Market - Last week, 63 interest - rate bonds were issued, an increase of 3 compared with the previous week. The issuance volume was 711.5 billion yuan, an increase of 105 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 112.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 229.6 billion yuan. The issuance of Treasury bonds increased, while that of policy - financial bonds and local bonds decreased. The net financing of policy - financial bonds increased, while that of Treasury and local bonds decreased [15]. - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally okay. The average subscription multiples of remaining Treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local bonds were 3.40 times, 4.61 times, and 19.14 times respectively [16]. 2. Last Week's Important Events - In February, CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year, mainly driven by the Spring Festival holiday consumption. PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year but increased by 0.4% month - on - month. It is expected that in March, PPI will continue to rise month - on - month and turn positive year - on - year, with an expected increase of about 0.3% [18]. - From January to February, exports increased by 21.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 19.8% year - on - year. The high export growth was due to the low base in the previous year and the strong demand for semiconductors and other products. The import growth was due to the low base and the support of export growth [19]. - In February, new RMB loans were 900 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 110 billion yuan. The new social financing scale was 2.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 146.9 billion yuan. M2 increased by 9.0% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 5.9% year - on - year [20]. 3. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, high - frequency production data showed a mixed trend. The blast furnace operating rate and semi - steel tire operating rate increased, while the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate and daily hot - metal output decreased. The BDI index and CCFI index increased slightly, and the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased slightly. Pork prices continued to fall, while most commodity prices rose [21]. 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - Last week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net capital withdrawal of 251.1 billion yuan. R007 and DR007 both increased, the inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate of joint - stock banks increased slightly, the six - month national - stock direct discount rate increased, the volume of pledged repurchase decreased slightly, and the inter - bank market leverage ratio decreased slightly [33][35][38][39]