Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, copper prices fluctuated weakly mainly due to continuous Middle - East geopolitical conflicts stimulating market inflation expectations, driving up the US dollar and suppressing copper prices. Although there are frequent resource problems in mines and recycled copper, electrolytic copper production is not affected. Downstream demand in the copper products sector has slightly recovered, and inventory has decreased, but the pattern of loose supply and demand has not been reversed. Poor terminal performance and high - level inventory pressure still suppress the upward movement of copper prices. If the war continues and inflation expectations continue to rise, copper prices will remain weak. If the situation eases, oil prices fall and the US dollar declines, copper prices may have a driving force for rebound [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Macro: The Middle - East geopolitical situation remains tense. If the war continues, inflation pressure will rise, the US dollar will strengthen, and copper prices will be further depressed. The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, and the expectation of three interest rate cuts this year has converged to one, so the US dollar provides weak support for copper prices [3] - Supply: In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year - on - year increase of 6.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.0%. From January to February 2026, the import volume was 4.934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. Domestic copper concentrate inventory is at a relatively low level compared with previous years. Due to tight overseas copper resources and difficult shipments affected by the war, copper resource shortages still support copper prices. The price difference between refined and scrap copper in mainstream areas has declined. The output of electrolytic copper in March increased by 52,800 tons month - on - month, a year - on - year increase of 6.51% [3] - Demand: After entering the peak seasons (March and April) for copper products, the start - up rate has begun to rise. In February, the start - up rate of the copper cable industry was 55.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 14.29 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 9.06 percentage points. The start - up rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 46.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.38 percentage points, 3.89 percentage points lower than the expected value, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.58 percentage points. Terminal data shows no optimistic performance, and the terminal's feedback on copper prices is weak. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694,000 and 765,000 respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2% [3] 2. Shanghai Copper Price Trend - This week, Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly. The highest price was 101,980 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 98,370 yuan/ton, the weekly increase or decrease was - 0.73%, and the range amplitude was 3.57% [5] 3. Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of March 16, the average spot premium in East China was 60 yuan/ton, and the average premium in South China was 20 yuan/ton. The market had a strong willingness to support prices this week, and spot quotes were mainly at a premium. Next week, the volume of imported cleared goods may increase, and spot prices are expected to fluctuate at a discount [11] 4. LME Copper Spread Structure - As of March 13, LME copper rose 0.05% during the week, closing at $12,847/ton, with a spot premium of - $89/ton [16] 5. Copper Concentrate Supply - In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year - on - year increase of 6.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.0%. From January to February 2026, the import volume was 4.934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. Domestic copper concentrate inventory is at a relatively low level compared with previous years. Glencore's copper refinery in Australia has gone on strike due to a salary dispute [21] 6. Scrap Copper Supply - As of March 13, the price difference between refined and scrap copper in mainstream areas fell to 1,473 yuan/ton. In 2025, China imported 2.3427 million physical tons of scrap copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4% [25] 7. Smelter Fees - As of March 13, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $60.12/dry ton, and the RC fee was - 6.10 cents/pound. Some smelters plan to conduct regular maintenance from March to May. The China Copper Smelters Purchasing Consortium (CSPT) announced a joint production cut of more than 10% in 2026, and the long - term processing fee for copper concentrates in 2026 was set at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound [30] 8. Refined Copper Supply - It is expected that the output in March will increase by 52,800 tons month - on - month, a year - on - year increase of 6.51%. In February, Chile's copper exports to China increased from a low level, but its exports of copper ores to China decreased. In December 2025, the import of unwrought copper and copper products was 437,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import was 5.321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4% [35] 9. Apparent Demand - As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.00% [39] 10. Copper Product Industry - In February, the start - up rate of the copper cable industry was 55.81%, and the start - up rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 46.26% [43] 11. Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of 2025, the national cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.89 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 16.1%. The average utilization hours of power generation equipment in power plants above 6,000 kilowatts decreased by 312 hours compared with the same period of the previous year [47] 12. Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - In February 2026, the decline in the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to narrow month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. From January to February, national real estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% [52] 13. Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - In February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694,000 and 765,000 respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2%. The export of new energy vehicles was 282,000, a year - on - year increase of 1.1 times [56] 14. Copper Inventories in Major Global Exchanges - As of March 13, LME copper inventory increased by 27,500 tons to 311,800 tons week - on - week, a 9.67% increase, and 31.46% higher year - on - year. COMEX copper inventory was 591,600 tons, a 1.05% decrease week - on - week and 538.09% higher year - on - year. As of March 12, the bonded - area inventories in Shanghai and Guangdong continued to increase. As of March 13, Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 315,100 tons, a 0.13% decrease week - on - week; cathode copper inventory was 391,500 tons, a 1.96% increase week - on - week [61][66]
沪铜周报-20260316
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2026-03-16 11:21