每日核心期货品种分析-20260316

Report Overview - The report is a daily analysis of core futures varieties, released on March 16, 2026 [3] Commodity Performance - As of the close on January 16, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Asphalt rose over 10%, bottle chips rose over 7%, ethylene glycol (EG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rose over 3%, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), propylene, polypropylene (PP), plastic, and palm oil rose over 2%. In terms of declines, Shanghai silver fell over 6%, palladium fell over 4%, platinum, container shipping on the European line, rapeseed meal, polysilicon, Shanghai tin, and live pigs fell over 3%, and glass and Shanghai gold fell over 2% [6] - Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract rose 0.08%, the SSE 50 index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.26%, the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract fell 0.62%, and the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) main contract fell 0.23%. Among treasury bond futures, the 2-year treasury bond futures (TS) main contract fell 0.04%, the 5-year treasury bond futures (TF) main contract fell 0.08%, the 10-year treasury bond futures (T) main contract fell 0.11%, and the 30-year treasury bond futures (TL) main contract fell 0.43% [7] Market Analysis Copper - Shanghai copper opened and closed lower. Tensions in the Middle East remain high, and if the conflict continues, inflation pressure will rise, strengthening the US dollar and suppressing copper prices. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, and the expectation of three interest rate cuts this year has converged to one, providing weak support for copper prices [9] - In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 6.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 12.0%. From January to February 2026, China imported 4.934 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. Domestic copper concentrate inventories are at a relatively low level compared to previous years, and the shortage of copper resources still supports copper prices [9] - The spread between refined and scrap copper in mainstream areas has narrowed. The output of electrolytic copper in March increased by 52,800 tons month-on-month and 6.51% year-on-year. On the demand side, the copper product sector has seen an increase in开工 after the "Golden March and Silver April." However, terminal data shows no optimistic performance, and the feedback on copper prices from the terminal is weak. New energy vehicle production and sales decreased by 21.8% and 14.2% year-on-year respectively [9] - Overall, copper prices are expected to be weak this week. If the war continues and inflation expectations rise, copper prices will remain weak. If the situation eases, copper prices may rebound [10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and closed lower today but rebounded at the end of the session. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 156,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 153,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [11] - Lithium concentrate exports from all lithium producers in Zimbabwe have been suspended. Local lithium mining companies are submitting new export license applications to the Zimbabwean government, and the approval process is expected to take 2 to 4 weeks. The domestic production schedule in March 2026 is 106,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 29.4%. There is a high probability of复产 in the domestic lithium mining sector, which is a potential negative factor [11] - Overall inventory continues to decline, but the decline rate is narrowing. Downstream inventory continues to accumulate, but the accumulation rate has slowed down. Terminal demand shows a marginal weakening trend. Overall, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are marginally weakening. If the news of the new export license application is confirmed, the previous gains may be reversed. The supply is expected to continue to increase, while the demand is approaching the photovoltaic tariff window period. The market is expected to be in a wide range of fluctuations in the short term [11] Crude Oil - EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, but the decrease in refined oil inventories was significant, resulting in an overall decrease in oil product inventories [12] - The US, Israel, and Iran are still attacking each other. Iran's daily oil production is about 3.3 million barrels, accounting for 3% of global production, and its daily exports are about 1.6 million barrels. The Strait of Hormuz, where Iran is located, is a major shipping route for crude oil. The near-complete suspension of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz for several days has led to production cuts in Middle Eastern oil-producing countries [12][13] - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait have cut production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day, equivalent to one-third of their total production capacity and about 6% of global supply. Although Trump said the war is basically over, Iran has stated that it controls the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and has fired on some merchant ships. The US Energy Secretary said it is "highly likely" to provide escort for ships in the Strait of Hormuz by the end of this month [13] - The IEA has announced the release of up to 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, but the delivery speed is slow. The US Treasury Department has temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian maritime oil. These measures have alleviated short-term supply pressure, but are still less than the previous crude oil shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz. The risk of crude oil price spikes remains, and the frequent news of the Middle East situation has a significant impact on crude oil prices [13] Asphalt - On the supply side, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0% last week, which is 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In March 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.187 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 251,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 43,000 tons [14] - After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the开工率 of most asphalt downstream industries increased. The national asphalt shipments increased by 12.67% to 176,100 tons, but are still at a low level. The asphalt plant inventory rate remained unchanged, and the asphalt refinery inventory rate is at the lowest level in recent years [14] - The price of asphalt in Shandong has been adjusted, and the basis has dropped to a relatively low level. The import of Venezuelan crude oil in China is expected to decrease significantly compared to before the US intervention, and the supply of Middle Eastern raw materials will be affected by the US-Israel attack on Iran. The market is concerned about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries in March [14] - Dongming Petrochemical has resumed production, and the asphalt开工率 has increased slightly. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand has gradually recovered. The supply and demand of asphalt have both increased, and the cost support is significant. The market is focused on the tense situation in the Middle East, and the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed navigation. The expected production cuts of refineries have increased. It is expected that the asphalt price will follow the strong performance of crude oil prices in the near future, with large fluctuations [15] PP - As of the week of March 13, the downstream开工率 of PP decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 45.71%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream's acceptance of high-priced raw materials is not high, and the demand recovery is slow. However, the开工率 of the main downstream plastic products of PP continued to increase by 2.88 percentage points to 40.54% [16] - On March 16, some parking devices such as the first-phase second-line of Zhongjing Petrochemical restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 increased to about 77.5%, which is at a relatively low level. The production ratio of standard-grade PP decreased to about 23.5%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the petrochemical inventory has continued to decline, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [16] - On the cost side, although the IEA has announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The crude oil price has continued to rebound due to the attacks on multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the statement of the Iranian Supreme Leader to continue to block the Strait of Hormuz. The number of parking devices has increased recently. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream rigid demand has been released intensively, and the price of downstream BOPP films has increased [16] - The domestic supply and demand pattern of PP has improved, and there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry. The Middle East situation has boosted the energy and chemical industry. Although PP does not rely on Middle Eastern imports, its upstream depends on Middle Eastern liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil. The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the reduction of olefin devices at home and abroad. The downstream has shown resistance to high prices, and the spot trading is weak. However, under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the reduction of refineries will further increase. The PP price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [16] Plastic - On March 16, there was little change in the parking devices, and the plastic开工率 remained at about 87.5%, which is at a neutral level. As of the week of March 13, the downstream开工率 of PE increased by 5.21 percentage points to 33.83%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream has gradually resumed production, but has not yet returned to the pre-holiday level. The overall downstream开工率 of PE shows seasonal changes [17][18] - After the Spring Festival holiday, the petrochemical inventory has continued to decline, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. On the cost side, although the IEA has announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The crude oil price has continued to rebound due to the attacks on multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the statement of the Iranian Supreme Leader to continue to block the Strait of Hormuz [18] - In terms of supply, the new production capacity of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA was put into production in January 2026. There are no plans to put new production capacity into operation in the first quarter. The plastic开工率 has decreased recently. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream factories have increased their resumption of work, and the rigid demand has been released intensively. The prices of agricultural films in North China, East China, and South China have all increased [18] - The domestic supply and demand pattern of plastic has improved, and there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry. The Middle East situation has boosted the energy and chemical industry. Iranian PE imports account for about 8% of China's total imports and about 3% of domestic production. The imports from the entire Middle East region account for about 20% of domestic production. The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the reduction of olefin devices at home and abroad. The downstream has shown resistance to high prices, and the procurement has become more cautious. The spot trading is weak. However, under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the reduction of refineries will further increase. The plastic price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [18] PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region has increased by 50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the PVC开工率 increased by 0.24 percentage points to 81.35%, and the PVC开工率 has increased, but is still at a neutral to high level in recent years. After the third week of the Spring Festival holiday, the average downstream开工率 of PVC increased by 3.49 percentage points to 39.33%, which is 3.13 percentage points lower than the same period last year. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream has gradually resumed production [19] - In terms of exports, due to the increase in Asian market prices, export inquiries have improved. The social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival holiday and continued to increase last week, and is still at a relatively high level. The inventory pressure is still large. From January to February 2026, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the year-on-year decline in investment, sales, new construction, and completion areas is still large. After the third week of the Spring Festival holiday, the commercial housing transactions have increased month-on-month, but are still at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The improvement of the real estate market still takes time [19] - The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the social inventory continues to increase. However, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment has stated that it will focus on key links such as the research and development of mercury-free catalysts to accelerate the mercury-free transformation of the polyvinyl chloride industry. The supply of upstream raw materials for PVC is tight, and the prices of ethylene and calcium carbide continue to rise. There is an expectation of load reduction in the domestic and international PVC markets. This week, ethylene-based devices such as Xinpu Chemical and Zhejiang Jiahua will reduce their operating loads. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. Under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the PVC price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [19][20] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened and closed lower but closed higher on the day. Fundamentally, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased last week, and the domestic mine开工率 has reached 87.16%, a month-on-month increase of 4.84%. The production and开工率 are both at a relatively high level year-on-year. However, due to the impact of overseas military conflicts, the price of coking coal has increased, leading to an increase in the downstream's purchasing sentiment. The coking coal inventory has decreased significantly this period, a month-on-month decrease of 85,800 tons. The downstream coking enterprises and steel mills have replenished their inventories, a month-on-month increase of 199,800 tons and 19,900 tons respectively. However, the coke production has not increased significantly, and the steel mills' profitability has recovered, with the开工 rate increasing by 0.63%, but the start-up speed is slower than in previous years [21] - Although the fundamentals of coking coal have no upward driving force, it is still in a strong consolidation state recently due to the stimulation of inflation expectations and the expectation of energy shortage. If the Middle East situation shows no sign of stopping in the short term, the energy and chemical industry will remain strong. Otherwise, there is a risk of a rapid decline [21] Urea - The market sentiment was high last week, and the rise of futures and international urea has driven the enthusiasm of spot trading. Most regions remained stable this weekend. The ex-factory prices of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan range from 1,810 to 1,840 yuan/ton [22] - Fundamentally, the state reserve of urea has been released, and the daily production has continuously reached new highs. At present, the gas-based devices have basically completed their resumption of production, and there are sporadic shutdown plans for upstream factories. The resumption and shutdown are parallel, with basically no major changes. The raw material prices of compound fertilizers have all increased to varying degrees this week, and the terminal sales are smooth. The cost and demand have jointly driven the price of compound fertilizer products to rise. Although the开工 rate is gradually increasing, the finished product inventory is still decreasing. Although the topdressing of wheat during the greening period is basically over, subsequent products such as spring corn still require a large amount of high-nitrogen compound fertilizers. Although the increase in raw material prices has squeezed the factory profits, the high demand still corresponds to the high supply [22] - After the sharp increase, the downstream buys when the price rises and does not buy when the price falls, and the terminal sales are smooth. The upstream factory inventory has continued to decrease. Although the current daily production is higher than last year, the inventory has not shown a large increase due to the digestion of downstream demand and the drive of exports. Instead, it shows a looser situation than last year, with no obvious inventory pressure, which is an important reason to support the strong market. Overall, due to the combination of farming and the Middle East situation, urea shows a slight over-increase. Ensuring supply and stabilizing prices during the spring plowing season is still the main tone of the market. The opportunity for a significant increase in the future depends on the export quota after the end of the spring plowing season. It is expected to stabilize in the short term [22][23]