【冠通期货研究报告】热卷日报：震荡整理-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The hot-rolled coil is expected to continue to operate in a volatile and slightly stronger manner. The short - and medium - term trends are strengthening, with cost support from raw materials, supply pressure relieved by production decline, and demand showing a post - holiday recovery but still at a low level in recent years. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and the subsequent inventory reduction rhythm [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of hot - rolled coil futures reduced its positions by 14,370 lots on Monday, with a trading volume of 292,044 lots, which was lower than the previous trading day. The short - term moving average broke through the 5 - day moving average around 3278, the 30 - day moving average was 3250, and the medium - term pressure was around the 60 - day moving average of 3265 [1] - Spot price: The price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3280 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was - 19 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - Supply side: The actual weekly output was 295.26 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.85 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 23.39 million tons. Steel mills actively reduced production, and both the year - on - year and month - on - month production decreased, alleviating the supply - side pressure [4] - Demand side: The apparent consumption was 295.36 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.79 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 35.99 million tons. The weekly apparent demand rebounded, but it was still weak year - on - year, and the demand had not formed a continuous warming trend [4] - Inventory side: The social inventory was 382.31 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.70 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 50.41 million tons, showing continuous inventory accumulation. The steel mill inventory was 89.28 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 million tons, indicating a reduction in in - plant inventory. The total inventory was 471.59 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 55.37 million tons. The total inventory increased significantly year - on - year, the social inventory accumulated obviously, the inventory - to - sales ratio was still at a high level, and the market inventory reduction pressure was not fundamentally relieved [4] - Policy side: On March 5, 2026, the National Two Sessions were held. The government work report proposed to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and arrange 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds to strengthen the support for infrastructure and "two new" projects, boosting the medium - and long - term market confidence. However, the current manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, downstream orders had not improved substantially, and it would take time for policies to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, making it difficult to reverse the high - inventory pattern in the short term [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Supply contraction, demand resilience, policy support ("15th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and stronger raw materials [5] - Bearish factors: Slow realization of demand, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro - level disturbances [5]