【冠通期货研究报告】铁矿日报：短期扰动因素较多，基本面压力仍存-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is facing short - term disturbances and fundamental pressure. In the short term, it is expected to be volatile, and in the long - term, the high - inventory pressure is difficult to ease, maintaining a loose pattern. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be significant [2] - Considering the supply and geopolitical disturbances, iron ore is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic. In the short term, the downside space is limited, and it may enter a high - level volatile consolidation phase [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - The main contract of iron ore futures rebounded with a slight upward trend during the day, closing at 809 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton or - 0.31% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 320,000 lots, the open interest was 459,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.167 billion yuan. The short - term support below is around 790, and the short - term pressure above is around 820. In the near future, it may continue to be under pressure near the upper pressure and enter a volatile consolidation [1] - The mainstream spot varieties at the port: Qingdao Port PB powder dropped 5 to 793, Super Special powder dropped 5 to 670, and the main swap was 107.5 (- 0.45) US dollars/ton. The swap continued to lack upward momentum, and the spot price declined [1] - The converted futures price of Qingdao Port PB powder is 825.8 yuan/ton, with a basis of 16.8 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly shrank. The spread between iron ore contracts 5 - 9 is 31.5 yuan, and the spread between contracts 9 - 1 is 19 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month, while arrivals increased month - on - month. The previous high shipments are gradually arriving, and the overall supply remains relatively loose. Some spot varieties have limited liquidity, leading to relatively strong futures and spot prices [2] - On the demand side, the molten iron output decreased significantly. During the Two Sessions, production restrictions affected the resumption rhythm of molten iron production, but it is likely to recover seasonally later [2] - In terms of inventory, port inventories increased slightly, while berthing and steel mill inventories decreased slightly. Without disturbances, it is difficult for the total inventory to show a significant reduction. Attention should be paid to the impact of tight inventory liquidity of some varieties on prices. At the same time, there are still expectations of geopolitical disturbances, and market sentiment changes should be monitored [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestically, after the important meetings, the domestic macro - economy has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. This week, domestic export, inflation, and financial data were mainly released, and the overall data performance was relatively good. The macro - fundamentals maintained resilience, increasing the probability of a "good start" in the first quarter. The resilience of domestic demand is still reflected in the financial and capital aspects, and high - frequency commodity consumption is still at a seasonal low after the Spring Festival resumption of work. In the future, domestic focus should be on the progress of the repair of domestic demand investment, the impact of imported inflation on the domestic price structure, and the sustainability of export resilience [4] - Overseas, the market is gradually pricing in the possibility that the high - oil - price environment may continue, and concerns about the economic stagflation in the US in the first quarter have further intensified. In the future, the overseas macro - logic may gradually shift from the "soft landing" expectation driven by the loosening of liquidity to the arrival time and magnitude of "inflation" and the possibility and time of the shift from "inflation" to "stagflation" [4] Viewpoint Summary - Overall, the iron ore fundamentals show a weak situation, with a loose supply, a decrease in molten iron output on the demand side, a delay in the resumption rhythm, and an increase in port inventories [5] - Due to the double disturbances of the supply side and geopolitics, iron ore is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic. With a positive basis and the continuation of the BACK structure, the short - term downside space is limited, and it may enter a high - level volatile consolidation. Attention should be paid to further tests near the upper pressure [5]