螺纹日报：震荡整理-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of rebar is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend, but the upside space depends on whether the demand recovery can drive inventory reduction [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract reduced its open interest by 52,715 lots on Monday, and the trading volume shrank compared with the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 735,893 lots. In terms of the moving average, it short - term broke through the 5 - day moving average of 3,124, and was near the 30 - day moving average of 3,092 and the 60 - day moving average of 3,109. The short - and medium - term trends strengthened [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream area's spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was reported at 3,250 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 110 yuan/ton to the spot price [2]. Fundamental Data - Supply - demand situation: - Supply side: In the week of March 13, 2026, the rebar production was 1.953 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 219,900 tons. There was short - term复产, but the overall trend was still shrinking. The weekly复产 was a phased resumption of work, and the production was still lower year - on - year. The supply side was not fully relaxed [3]. - Demand side: In the week of March 13, 2026, the current apparent demand was 1.7681 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 785,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 564,000 tons. It was a pulse - like rebound, and its sustainability needed to be verified. The weekly sharp increase in apparent demand was mainly driven by replenishment, and the terminal demand was still weaker than the same period last year [3]. - Inventory side: Social inventory was 6.5455 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 168,000 tons, with a significant inventory accumulation. Steel mill inventory was 2.3962 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,900 tons, with a slight inventory accumulation. The total inventory was 8.9417 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 184,900 tons. The inventory was accumulating at a high level, and the pressure to destock was large. The total inventory was still increasing year - on - year, and social inventory was the main pressure point. The inventory - to - sales ratio was still at a high level, suppressing the upside space of prices [3]. - Cost and profit: The steel price valuation was at a low level. Geopolitical factors pushed up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [3]. - Macroeconomic aspect: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, sent positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as "issuing ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan", "arranging local government special bonds worth 4.4 trillion yuan", and "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" to stabilize growth. The market's expectation of infrastructure and real estate support increased, and the sentiment received phased support [5]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low steel price valuation, geopolitical factors pushing up costs, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support restoration [6]. - Bearish factors: Persistent weak terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slowdown in destocking speed, and bearish capital position structure [6]. Short - term View Summary - Affected by the news of the removal of restrictions on iron ore on Friday night, the price opened lower and then consolidated during the day to fill the upper gap. In terms of the moving average, the short - and medium - term trends strengthened, breaking through the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages. The short - term support was near the 5 - day moving average, and the pressure was at the previous platform. Currently, the supply side has recovered, and the high inventory has formed a certain pressure. The demand side has recovered seasonally but with less strength compared with previous years, and the real estate data is still weak. However, the cost side is supported by Middle East events. It is expected that the price will maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend, but the upside space also depends on whether the demand recovery can drive inventory destocking [6].