冠通期货研究报告：软商品日报：震荡为主-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton is expected to remain volatile and slightly bullish in the short term [1] - Sugar is in a stage with strong downside support but limited upward drive, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the total volume of processing trade quotas for cotton imports under the sliding - scale tariff in 2026 is 300,000 tons, distributed on a contract - based application basis, and applications will stop once the quota reaches the total [1] - Last week, textile enterprises were still reluctant to replenish inventory due to high cotton prices. External factors such as geopolitical situation, high price difference between domestic and foreign cotton, and the impact of imported yarn, as well as the policy factor of rumored additional processing trade quotas, significantly restricted the short - term upward movement of cotton prices [1] - Two informed sources revealed that the high - level economic officials of China and the United States had a "quite stable" meeting in Paris on Sunday, discussing areas such as agriculture, critical minerals, and trade management where consensus might be reached for consideration during the meeting between the two heads of state in Beijing [1] Sugar - As of March 15, 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, there were 173 remaining sugar - mills in India, 27 less than the same period last year. The cumulative sugar production was 26.175 million tons, an increase of 2.46 million tons year - on - year [2] - In Maharashtra, the cumulative sugar production was 9.85 million tons, an increase of 1.99 million tons year - on - year, with an average sugar yield of 9.50%, a year - on - year increase of 0.05% [2] - In Uttar Pradesh, the cumulative sugar production was 8.15 million tons, an increase of 55,000 tons year - on - year, with an average sugar yield of 10.15%, a year - on - year increase of 0.55% [2] - In Karnataka, the cumulative sugar production was 4.58 million tons, an increase of 670,000 tons year - on - year, with an average sugar yield of 8.65%, a year - on - year increase of 0.15% [2] - The estimated cost of processing and paying taxes for Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,055 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 5,153 yuan/ton. Compared with the spot price of Rizhao white sugar, the estimated profit for processing and paying taxes for Brazilian sugar within the quota is 1,565 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 467 yuan/ton [2] - Sugar is generally in a stage of loose supply and demand. Since the proportion of imported sugar in the first half of the year is not large, the price difference between domestic and foreign markets continues to widen after the domestic market strengthens, and the rise and fall of crude oil drives the sugar price up and down [2]