玻璃、纯碱日报：日内震荡偏弱-20260316

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views - The core contradiction of glass lies in the game between "supply contraction expectation" (cold repair + policy) and "weak real - demand" (real estate downturn), with high inventory being the biggest pressure on the disk rebound. In the medium - term, glass demand is expected to remain weak due to the continued decline in commercial housing sales. Although geopolitical situations, energy and raw material prices support the disk, downstream demand recovery is less than expected, so the short - term disk is expected to fluctuate. After the macro - influencing factors subside, glass will face high - inventory and weak - reality pressure [1]. - The core logic of soda ash is that the industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern of high supply, weak demand, and high inventory has not improved. Short - term factors such as improved macro - sentiment, geopolitical risks driving up energy costs, and marginal inventory reduction drive the disk to rebound. Recently, with glass production lines being shut down, the rigid demand for soda ash is weak. The short - term price change of soda ash depends on geopolitical situations and market sentiment, and its fundamentals have slightly weakened. It is advisable to treat it with a high - level oscillation mindset [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - Today, the glass main contract opened and closed lower, with intraday oscillation weakening. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band is contracting, indicating short - term oscillation. The pressure is near the previous high, and the support is near the 10 - day moving average of the daily line. The trading volume increased by 52,544 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 2,174 lots. The intraday high was 1,134, the low was 1,096, and the closing price was 1,102, down 31 yuan/ton or 2.74% from yesterday's settlement price [1]. Soda Ash - The main contract of soda ash opened and closed lower, with intraday oscillation weakening. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band is contracting, indicating short - term oscillation. The pressure is near the previous high, and the support is near the 10 - day moving average of the daily line. The trading volume decreased by 72 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 6,183 lots. The intraday high was 1,275, the low was 1,242, and the closing price was 1,256, down 21 yuan/ton or 1.64% from yesterday's settlement price [2]. - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.9035 million tons, a decrease of 28,200 tons or 1.46% compared to last Thursday. Among them, light soda ash is 1.0019 million tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons, and heavy soda ash is 0.9016 million tons, a decrease of 16,500 tons [2].