软商品日报-20260316

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities, including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly, with general spot trading and stable basis. The release of cotton import quotas in 2026 is conducive to the convergence of internal and external price differences. The domestic peak season shows good performance, with increasing开机 and good digestion of cotton yarn finished - product inventory. The short - term main negative factor is the quota release, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, less rainfall in the rainy season and a decline in the sugar - making ratio are expected to reduce sugar production in the 26/27 season. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is strong. The production and sales progress in Guangxi in the 2025/26 season is slow, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuates. The spot price is stable. In the northwest, the procurement enthusiasm of merchants increases, while in Shandong, the trading volume is small. The cold - storage inventory decreases year - on - year, and the spot price is strongly supported. The trading logic focuses on the demand side, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber and 20 - rubber rose, while the butadiene rubber futures price fluctuated. The supply of natural rubber is in the low - production period, and the butadiene rubber device operating rate decreased. The tire operating rate increased, and the inventory situation is different for different types of rubber. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the Middle East situation and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5] Pulp - Pulp futures are in low - level fluctuations. The domestic pulp port inventory is still high, but the overseas quotation is strong. The long - term cost has certain support, and the downstream demand is general. The medium - term trend may be range - bound [6] Timber - The futures price is strong. The spot price in Taicang decreased. The external quotation increased, and the future arrival volume may be low. The downstream is gradually resuming work, and the port delivery volume increased. The inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]