异动快评：供应压力持续，猪价大幅下跌

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 16, 2026, the closing price of the live - hog main contract was 10,810 yuan/ton, with a - 3.05% change from the previous trading day [2] - Since March, the spot price of live hogs has hit a new low. On the week of March 16, 2026, the national average slaughter price of commercial hogs was 10.06 yuan/kg, with a - 15% monthly change and a - 31% year - on - year change [4] - In the short term, the supply pressure in the near - term is still being realized, and the downward cycle in the first and second quarters continues. In the long term, "policy + loss" will drive production cuts, and the far - month prices are expected to rise [4] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On March 16, 2026, the closing price of the live - hog main contract was 10,810 yuan/ton, down 3.05% from the previous trading day [2] 3.2 Industry Analysis - Spot price: Since March, the live - hog spot price has hit a new low. On the week of March 16, 2026, the national average slaughter price of commercial hogs was 10.06 yuan/kg, with a - 15% monthly change and a - 31% year - on - year change [4] - Short - term supply: The supply pressure will continue until April due to the high inventory of breeding sows in the first half of 2025. The increase in the number of piglets will postpone the inflection point of commercial hog supply, and the supply pressure may continue until August. The inventory of live hogs in March increased both month - on - month and year - on - year and needs to be digested [4] - Long - term supply: Policy and losses will drive production cuts. The "anti - involution" policy in 2025 and the continued guidance of the Ministry of Agriculture in 2026 support the bullish sentiment in the far - month. The low pig price in March 2026 led to losses in breeding, which is conducive to capacity reduction [4] - Supply rhythm: The sow capacity began to decline in March 2025. It is estimated that the pressure on the slaughter of commercial hogs may start to decrease at the end of March 2026, and the situation at the piglet stage needs to be verified [5] 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: In the first half of 2026, the pressure of high - level capacity realization still exists. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels, and breeding enterprises can continue hedging. The third quarter may be the inflection point of the cycle bottoming out. In the fourth quarter, the production cuts will be gradually realized, and the pig cycle will rise moderately, but the upside space is currently limited. Pay attention to long - buying opportunities below the cost line [5] - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage [5]