【华宝期货】有色金属周报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report Aluminum - Geopolitical conflicts are changeable, and the risk premium of the global aluminum supply chain still exists, with amplified price volatility. In the short term, the Middle - East situation is stalemated. With the continuous tightening of LME liquidity, overseas prices are strongly supported, and the Shanghai - London ratio is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level overall [13]. Zinc - In the medium - and long - term, the increase in supply still exerts upward pressure, but it will take time to materialize. The price will be range - bound in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - risk events and the trends of internal and external inventory consumption, and be vigilant against the phased impact brought by macro - sentiment [14]. Tin - The price trend is oscillating weakly [16]. Carbonate Lithium - The increase in supply suppresses the lithium price, and the low inventory limits a sharp decline. The lithium price is under pressure and oscillates weakly [18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 01. Colorful Weekly Market Review - Futures and Spot Prices: The closing prices of copper, zinc, tin, and nickel futures decreased last week, with week - on - week declines of - 0.73%, - 0.49%, - 4.97%, and - 0.15% respectively. Aluminum futures rose by 0.99%. In the spot market, copper, zinc, and tin prices decreased, with week - on - week declines of - 0.50%, - 0.98%, and - 3.13% respectively. Aluminum and nickel prices rose, with week - on - week increases of 2.83% and 0.63% respectively [9]. 02. This Week's Non - ferrous Market Forecast Aluminum - Logic: Last week, aluminum prices were strong at a high level. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, and the market is still pricing in geopolitical risks. Domestically, the supply of bauxite is sufficient, and the price is stable. Due to the sharp fluctuations in freight rates and the rise in oil prices, the cost of sea transportation has increased, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 2.4 percentage points to 61.9%, and all sectors increased. However, high aluminum prices and macro - uncertainties are suppressing the release of demand [13]. - View: Geopolitical conflicts are changeable, and the risk premium of the global aluminum supply chain still exists, with amplified price volatility. It is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level overall [13]. Zinc - Logic: Last week, zinc prices were weak. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was stable, and the overseas supply was disturbed. The operating rate of the galvanizing industry increased, but the terminal resumption of work was slow, and the finished product inventory increased [14]. - View: In the medium - and long - term, the increase in supply still exerts upward pressure, but it will take time to materialize. The price will be range - bound in the short term [14]. Tin - Logic: In December, the import volume of domestic tin ore increased. The supply from Myanmar is on the rise. In February 2026, the domestic refined tin production decreased. In March, the production increased seasonally, but the lack of raw materials in Yunnan and Jiangxi still restricts the increase in production. The demand has not changed much, and the high price of tin suppresses the release of demand, leading to an increase in inventory [16]. - View: The price trend is oscillating weakly [16]. Carbonate Lithium - Logic: Last week, the main contract of carbonate lithium futures rebounded after reaching the bottom and then fell under pressure. The supply is accelerating the recovery, the production of cathode materials is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The terminal sales of new energy vehicles have not improved significantly, but the energy storage maintains high prosperity. The total inventory is decreasing, but the inventory structure is differentiated. The cost of low - grade raw materials is weakening, and the macro - policy is positive but still uncertain [18]. - View: The increase in supply suppresses the lithium price, and the low inventory limits a sharp decline. The lithium price is under pressure and oscillates weakly [18]. 03. Variety Data Aluminum - Bauxite: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan decreased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week and 65 yuan/ton year - on - year. The price of low - grade bauxite decreased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week and 65 yuan/ton year - on - year. The average price of imported bauxite increased by 1.88 dollars/ton week - on - week and decreased by 29.33 dollars/ton year - on - year. The port arrival volume decreased by 10.91 tons week - on - week and increased by 149.05 tons year - on - year. The port departure volume decreased by 100.36 tons week - on - week and decreased by 60.55 tons year - on - year [23][26]. - Alumina: The domestic price in Henan increased by 40 yuan/ton week - on - week and decreased by 555.3 yuan/ton year - on - year. The full cost increased by 22.6 yuan/ton week - on - week and decreased by 610.6 yuan/ton year - on - year. The profit in Shanxi increased by 61.71 yuan/ton week - on - week and decreased by 151.46 yuan/ton year - on - year [29]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The total cost increased by 64.49 yuan/ton week - on - week and decreased by 1099.75 yuan/ton year - on - year. The regional price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum increased by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week and decreased by 40 yuan/ton year - on - year [31]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of aluminum cables increased by 2 percentage points to 65%. The operating rate of aluminum foil remained stable at 72.9%. The operating rate of aluminum plates and strips increased by 1 percentage point to 70%. The operating rate of aluminum profiles increased by 7.3 percentage points to 51.8%. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 1.8 percentage points to 53%. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 2.5 percentage points to 58.8% [36][37]. - Inventory: The bonded area inventory in Shanghai increased by 700 tons week - on - week and decreased by 22600 tons year - on - year. The total bonded area inventory increased by 700 tons week - on - week and decreased by 30300 tons year - on - year. The social inventory increased by 5.5 tons week - on - week and increased by 46.4 tons year - on - year. The weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas increased by 6.1 tons week - on - week and decreased by 1.85 tons year - on - year. The SHFE inventory increased by 21927 tons week - on - week and increased by 183185 tons year - on - year. The LME inventory decreased by 11575 tons week - on - week and decreased by 58250 tons year - on - year [42][43]. - Basis and Spread: The basis of the current month increased by 315 yuan/ton week - on - week and increased by 130 yuan/ton year - on - year. The basis of the main contract increased by 425 yuan/ton week - on - week and increased by 220 yuan/ton year - on - year. The basis of the third - consecutive contract increased by 375 yuan/ton week - on - week and increased by 45 yuan/ton year - on - year. The spread between the current month and the main contract increased by 110 yuan/ton week - on - week and increased by 65 yuan/ton year - on - year. The spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract increased by 60 yuan/ton week - on - week and decreased by 95 yuan/ton year - on - year [49][50]. Zinc - Zinc Concentrate: The price of domestic zinc concentrate decreased by 56 yuan/metal ton week - on - week and increased by 1812 yuan/metal ton year - on - year. The domestic processing fee remained unchanged week - on - week and decreased by 1700 yuan/metal ton year - on - year. The imported processing fee decreased by 4.13 dollars/dry ton week - on - week [60]. - Production Profit, Import Profit and Loss, and Inventory: The enterprise production profit decreased by 56 yuan/metal ton week - on - week and increased by 1544 yuan/metal ton year - on - year. The import profit and loss increased by 151.3 yuan/ton week - on - week and increased by 291.25 yuan/ton year - on - year. The inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang increased by 10,000 tons week - on - week and increased by 40,000 tons year - on - year [63]. - Refined Zinc Inventory: The social inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven regions increased by 1.36 tons week - on - week and increased by 13.7 tons year - on - year. The bonded area inventory remained unchanged week - on - week and decreased by 0.82 tons year - on - year. The SHFE refined zinc inventory increased by 12427 tons week - on - week and increased by 73820 tons year - on - year. The LME zinc inventory increased by 2925 tons week - on - week and decreased by 62425 tons year - on - year [67]. - Galvanizing: The production increased by 88725 tons week - on - week and decreased by 36850 tons year - on - year. The operating rate increased by 13.94 percentage points to 53%. The raw material inventory increased by 710 tons week - on - week and increased by 1905 tons year - on - year. The finished product inventory increased by 6400 tons week - on - week and decreased by 7400 tons year - on - year [71]. - Basis and Spread: The basis of the current month increased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week and decreased by 5 yuan/ton year - on - year. The basis of the main contract increased by 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and decreased by 120 yuan/ton year - on - year. The basis of the third - consecutive contract increased by 55 yuan/ton week - on - week and decreased by 375 yuan/ton year - on - year. The spread between the current month and the main contract decreased by 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and decreased by 115 yuan/ton year - on - year. The spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract decreased by 45 yuan/ton week - on - week and decreased by 370 yuan/ton year - on - year [75][80]. Tin - Refined Tin Production and Operating Rate: The combined production of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi last week was 0.334 million tons, an increase of 0.053 million tons week - on - week and 0.0355 million tons year - on - year. The combined operating rate was 68.93%, an increase of 10.94 percentage points week - on - week and 7.33 percentage points year - on - year [86]. - Tin Ingot Inventory: The total SHFE tin ingot inventory last week was 12514 tons, an increase of 851 tons week - on - week and 3993 tons year - on - year. The social inventory of tin ingots in China's regions was 13357 tons, an increase of 275 tons week - on - week and 3207 tons year - on - year [90]. - Tin Concentrate Processing Fee: The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 16000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week and increasing by 3500 yuan/ton year - on - year. The processing fees for 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi were 12000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week and increasing by 3500 yuan/ton year - on - year [94]. - Tin Ore Import Profit and Loss: The import profit and loss level of tin ore last week was 31947.02 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14937.28 yuan/ton week - on - week and an increase of 23291.32 yuan/ton year - on - year [95]. - Spot Price: The average price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan last week was 370600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10350 yuan/ton week - on - week and an increase of 94600 yuan/ton year - on - year. The average prices of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi were 374600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10350 yuan/ton week - on - week and an increase of 94600 yuan/ton year - on - year [101]. Carbonate Lithium - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 2.61% week - on - week and increased by 101.32% year - on - year. The trading volume increased by 26.44% week - on - week and 190.43% year - on - year. The open interest decreased by 5.07% week - on - week and increased by 24.17% year - on - year. The basis decreased by 860.44% week - on - week and 1102.90% year - on - year. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's daily inventory warrant volume increased by 0.20% week - on - week and 1.25% year - on - year [104]. - Supply: The total weekly operating rate of carbonate lithium was 53.41%, an increase of 3.71% week - on - week and 7.03% year - on - year. The production of carbonate lithium from spodumene was 14534 tons, an increase of 4.46% week - on - week and 45.28% year - on - year. The production from salt lakes was 3495 tons, an increase of 0.58% week - on - week and 30.51% year - on - year. The production from lepidolite was 2937 tons, an increase of 3.71% week - on - week and a decrease of 28.01% year - on - year. The production from recycled materials was 2460 tons, an increase of 3.84% week - on - week and 50.18% year - on - year [109][110][111]. - Demand: The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate was 101,700 tons, an increase of 5.22% week - on - week. The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate plants was 105,800 tons, an increase of 5.22% week - on - week and 7.22% year - on - year. The weekly production of ternary materials was 16,900 tons, an increase of 2.46% week - on - week and 31.34% year - on - year. The inventory was 18,000 tons, an increase of 1.17% week - on - week and 36.28% year - on - year. The inventory days were 7.2 days, a decrease of 1.37% week - on - week. The weekly inventory of ternary precursor plants was 36,600 tons, an increase of 0.55% week - on - week. The inventory index was 13.1, a decrease of 1.5% week - on - week [117]. - Inventory: The social inventory of carbonate lithium in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, and Sichuan decreased by 1.14% week - on - week and 8.03% year - on - year. The total sample weekly inventory was 99,000 tons, a decrease of 0.42% week - on - week and 19.96% year - on - year. The inventory days were 27.8 days, a decrease of 0.36% week - on - week and 32.69% year - on - year [124]. - Cost and Profit: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 2200.6