Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-03-16 12:30Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the aviation sector, recommending a focus on specific airlines such as China National Aviation, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others [74]. Core Insights - The summer flight schedule for 2026 indicates a controlled domestic capacity and a focus on international market recovery, with domestic flight schedules showing a 3% decrease compared to 2025 but a 19% increase compared to 2019 [3][6]. - The overall daily average flight schedule for domestic airlines is projected at 17,278 flights, reflecting a 1% decrease from 2025 but a 17% increase from 2019 [6]. - Domestic airlines are optimizing their route networks while international flights are expanding to stimulate recovery, with a recovery rate of 86% compared to 2019 levels [6][57]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market - Domestic airlines' average daily passenger flight schedules are expected to be 15,645 flights in 2026, down 3% from 2025 but up 19% from 2019 [4][27]. - The total daily average flight schedules for coordinated airports are projected to be 8,056 flights, remaining stable compared to 2025 and increasing by 21% from 2019 [6][27]. - Major airlines like China National Aviation, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines maintain significant market shares in key airports, with respective shares of 75%, 54%, and 49% [7][28]. International Market - The international flight schedules are expected to recover to 98% of 2019 levels, with a daily average of 2,621 flights planned for 2026 [6][57]. - Recovery rates for specific regions show varied performance, with Australia at 88%, North America at 24%, and Southeast Asia at 91% compared to 2019 [57][61]. - Domestic airlines are expected to achieve a recovery rate of 97% for international flights, indicating a strong rebound in international travel demand [61]. Investment Analysis - The report emphasizes the strong certainty in aviation supply logic, with limited fleet growth and resilient demand, particularly driven by visa-free policies boosting international travel [73]. - Recommendations include focusing on the aviation sector and specific airlines, as well as global aircraft leasing companies and airport operators with improving performance [73].