证券研究报告、晨会聚焦：地产由子沛：两会政策持续落地，市场回暖再升温-20260316

Core Insights - The report highlights that the policies from the Two Sessions are continuously being implemented, leading to a warming market in the real estate sector [3][5] - The overall performance of the real estate sector is currently lagging behind the broader market, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index declining by 0.53% while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.19% [3] Market Overview - In the week of March 6 to March 12, the total transaction of new homes in 38 key cities tracked by the report reached 22,453 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.2% and a month-on-month increase of 20.7%. However, the total transaction area was 2.214 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 6.1% [3] - For the same week, the total transaction of second-hand homes in 16 key cities was 19,500 units, with a year-on-year decline of 14.1% but a month-on-month increase of 18.3%. The total transaction area was 1.763 million square meters, showing a year-on-year decrease of 22.3% and a month-on-month increase of 9.8% [3] - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 186.351 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a depletion cycle of 179.2 weeks [3] Land Supply and Transactions - In the week of March 2 to March 8, land supply reached 2,101.5 million square meters, marking a year-on-year growth of 64.5%. The average supply price was 1,412 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 18.5% [4] - The total land transaction area was 2,656.5 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 17.3%. The total transaction amount was 29.92 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 12.9% [4] - The floor price for land transactions was 1,126 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 4.5% [4] Corporate Financing - In the week of March 6 to March 12, real estate companies issued a total of 12.52 billion yuan in credit bonds, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.35% and a month-on-month increase of 14.55% [4] - For the month to date, real estate companies have issued a total of 23.45 billion yuan in credit bonds, showing a year-on-year decline of 3.78% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.44% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on financially stable and well-performing leading real estate companies such as Yuexiu Property, China Vanke, Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and Greentown China, which are expected to effectively respond to market fluctuations under the current policy environment [4] - As market demand recovers, property management companies are also anticipated to see performance and valuation recovery, with recommendations to pay attention to China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, China Overseas Property, China Merchants Jinling, Poly Property, Wanwu Cloud, and Greentown Services [4]