政策压制，尿素震荡为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that the guiding price suppressed the spot market, which remained stable. This week's view is that due to policy pressure, urea will mainly fluctuate. The ex - factory prices in mainstream regions have been firm since the weekend, with stable market sentiment and average trading volume. Urea enterprises have received few orders. In Shandong, the ex - factory price is expected to remain firm; in Henan, although the market sentiment has cooled and the order - receiving volume has declined, the ex - factory price is also expected to be firm. In the areas around the delivery zone, the ex - factory price is expected to remain stable. The daily output of urea has increased to around 223,000 tons, and the supply has reached a new high. The international market price is firm, and India has tendered for 150 million tons again, with an expected price of no less than $500 per ton. However, there are no new quotas in China, so the overall impact is limited. The operating rates of compound fertilizer plants in the Central Plains and Northeast regions have gradually increased, but they mainly make rigid - demand purchases. After a significant inventory build - up during the Spring Festival, urea enterprises' inventories have started to decline slightly this week. With the continuous rise in prices and approaching demand, downstream buyers have started to purchase. Under current policy pressure, the upside of the spot price is limited, and the futures are expected to fluctuate strongly following the movement of crude oil. Relevant departments have issued consecutive documents to suppress the urea price. The trading strategy is to go short on a single - side basis without chasing the short position, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Overview: The ex - factory prices in different regions show different trends. The supply of urea has reached a new high, the international market is active but has limited impact on China. The demand from compound fertilizer plants is mainly for rigid needs. Urea inventories have started to decline. Under policy pressure, the spot price has limited upside, and the futures are expected to fluctuate strongly. The trading strategy is to go short on a single - side basis without chasing the short position, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [5]. - Core Data Changes - Supply: In the 10th week of 2026 (20260305 - 0311), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 97.43%, a 0.49% week - on - week decrease; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 78.28%, a 1.68% week - on - week increase. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate of urea was 95.37%, a 4.56% week - on - week decrease [6]. - Demand: In the 11th week of 2026 (20260306 - 0312), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 53.35%, a 3.9 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer in the same period was 45.56%, an 8.54 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. As of March 13, 2026, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,640 tons, a 16.33% week - on - week decrease. The arrival volume of urea in the Northeast this week (20260306 - 20260313) was 90,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week. As of March 11, 2026, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 8.06 days, a 4.54% week - on - week increase [6]. - Inventory: As of March 11, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,600 tons, a 12.79% week - on - week decrease. As of March 12, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 189,000 tons, a 0.53% week - on - week decrease [6]. - Valuation: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was stable, the price of Yulin pulverized coal was weak, the urea spot price was firm, and the urea production profit was stable. The fixed - bed production profit was 150 yuan/ton, the water - coal - slurry production profit was 240 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production profit was 460 yuan/ton. The futures fluctuated, the basis was near par, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 25 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Other Data Tracking - Other sections such as "Mainstream Manufacturer Ex - factory Price", "Basis", "Regional Spread", etc., only list the titles, and no specific content is provided for summary.