观点全追踪（3月第6期）：晨会精选-20260317

Group 1 - The report highlights a short-term disturbance in cross-border liquidity outlook due to a strong US dollar, which may temporarily suppress capital inflow [3] - It notes that the appreciation pace of the RMB is expected to moderate, influenced by changes in market risk appetite and rising oil prices [3] - The report anticipates that the US-China interest rate differential will maintain a volatile pattern due to the dual constraints of rising energy prices on the monetary policy space of both central banks [3] Group 2 - The report indicates that domestic credit demand is on a recovery trend, supported by fiscal policies from the Two Sessions, which are expected to bolster domestic demand and export-driven external demand [3] - It suggests that long-term capital flows will be driven by safety considerations, with instability in the US dollar monetary system potentially leading to increased capital inflow into RMB assets [3] - The report emphasizes that the speed of financial infrastructure opening will be crucial in determining the pace of this capital inflow [3]