美联储降息预期延后，铂钯受压制明显

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - On March 16, 2026, the platinum and palladium futures prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange dropped significantly, with the platinum main contract down 3.49% to 532.80 yuan/gram and the palladium main contract down 4.23% to 398.55 yuan/gram [1] - The delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has significantly suppressed platinum and palladium prices [1][2] - The outlook for platinum and palladium prices is expected to be volatile [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Platinum - Main Logic: The continuation of the US - Iran conflict provides support for precious metal prices due to risk - aversion sentiment. However, high oil prices raise inflation expectations and delay the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, suppressing platinum prices. If the US - Iran conflict persists, the US may enter a stagflation phase, further suppressing platinum price elasticity. Long - term factors such as the damage to the Fed's independence and the loosening of the global political and economic order will weaken the US dollar and benefit platinum price valuation, but the duration and intensity of the US - Iran conflict also have an impact [2] - Outlook: Volatile. High energy prices raise US inflation expectations and delay the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, so platinum prices are expected to move in a volatile manner [2] Palladium - Main Logic: There is continued uncertainty on the supply side of palladium. The US has imposed anti - dumping duties on Russian unforged palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions on Russian palladium. On the demand side, palladium still faces structural pressure. In the long term, the supply - demand situation of palladium is loosening, but there are still short - term supply disturbances, and currently it mainly follows the overall fluctuations of the precious metal sector [3] - Outlook: Volatile. The tightness of the palladium spot market has recently eased, and combined with macro - level suppression, palladium prices are expected to move in a volatile manner [3] Index Information - Commodity Index: The comprehensive index is not detailed. The commodity 20 index is 2973.96, up 0.65%; the industrial products index is 2579.71, up 0.86% [49] - Non - ferrous Metals Index: On March 13, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2713.01. The daily decline was 0.15%, the 5 - day increase was 0.44%, the 1 - month increase was 0.60%, and the increase since the beginning of the year was 1.01% [51]