棕榈油领涨油脂，双粕高位调整

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the agricultural market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical issues, policies, and supply - demand relationships. Different varieties show different trends, with some being bullish, some bearish, and some in a volatile state. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying strategy for some varieties and also to be aware of various risks [1][2][6]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Oils and Fats - Viewpoint: Palm oil leads the rise in oils and fats. In the short term, funds are bullish, but there are also potential negative factors. The outlook for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying strategy at the stage [1][2][5]. - Logic: Geopolitical issues in the Middle East affect market expectations and crude oil prices. Palm oil: Indonesia tightens exports and accelerates bio - diesel testing, but exports to some regions are affected. Soybean oil: The US bio - diesel policy is expected to be clear, and South American soybeans may have supply efficiency issues. Rapeseed oil: There will be a concentrated arrival of rapeseeds for crushing, and inventory is expected to accumulate [1][5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - Viewpoint: There is an increase in positions and a decline in price, and the double - meal market is adjusting. The outlook for soybean meal and rapeseed meal is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the support below [7]. - Logic: Internationally, the market expects China to increase the purchase of non - soybean US agricultural products, and the Brazilian soybean harvest progress is affected. Domestically, the decline of US soybeans in the outer market and the weakening of the impact of Brazilian shipping problems lead to an increase in positions and a decline in soybean meal. The low protein content of Australian rapeseed meal causes concerns about warehouse receipt delivery [7]. 3.3 Corn - Viewpoint: The spot price is firm, and attention should be paid to policy releases. The outlook is oscillating. In the medium - term, it is generally bullish [8][9][10]. - Logic: The price trend of corn in different regions is divided. The supply pressure is limited, and the downstream inventory is low. The increase in wheat supply and the expected improvement of new wheat growth conditions may affect the market [8][9][10]. 3.4 Pigs - Viewpoint: The supply is sufficient, and the pig price is weakening. The outlook is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling hedging opportunity in the first half of the year and the reverse - arbitrage strategy in the fourth quarter [10]. - Logic: In the short term, the supply increases and the demand decreases. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is large. In the long - term, the production reduction process is not smooth, and it is expected that the pig price will bottom out and pick up in the third quarter [10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - Viewpoint: The wide - range oscillating pattern is temporarily maintained. The outlook is oscillating [11][12]. - Logic: The short - term trading logic is affected by geopolitical issues in the Middle East. The market sentiment is weak, and there is a production increase expectation in Yunnan. However, the synthetic rubber provides support, and the fundamentals make the price easy to rise and difficult to fall [11][12]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - Viewpoint: The geopolitical logic remains unchanged, and the market is oscillating at a high level. If crude oil continues to rise, the market will remain strong in the short term [13][14]. - Logic: The Middle East geopolitical situation affects the supply of butadiene, leading to a contraction in supply. Although the fundamentals are weak, the market is still easy to rise and difficult to fall under the current geopolitical situation [13][14]. 3.7 Cotton - Viewpoint: The sliding - scale tariff quota is implemented, which is beneficial to the outer market and has a small impact on the inner market. The outlook is oscillating strongly, and it is recommended for long - term allocation [14][15][16]. - Logic: The release of the quota is earlier and the quantity is increased compared with previous years. It stimulates foreign cotton imports, promotes the convergence of the price difference between the inner and outer markets, and has a limited impact on the inner market [14]. 3.8 Sugar - Viewpoint: In the short term, the domestic and foreign sugar prices are mainly affected by oil price fluctuations. The outlook is oscillating, and the domestic price range can be appropriately widened [16][17]. - Logic: In the medium - and long - term, the sugar market is expected to be in a weak - oscillating state. In the short term, the price may oscillate due to oil price fluctuations. High oil prices may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil and then affect the sugar supply [16][17]. 3.9 Pulp - Viewpoint: The futures market remains weak, and the market expects the industry conference to provide guidance. The outlook is oscillating [18]. - Logic: The market is affected by the potential impact of the US - Iran conflict and the increase in shipping costs. Although there is a seasonal recovery in demand in March, the supply - surplus pattern suppresses the price. In April, the price may be weaker [18]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - Viewpoint: It is oscillating in a narrow range. The outlook is oscillating, and it is recommended to operate within the range of 4000 - 4400 yuan/ton [19][20]. - Logic: Paper mills have the intention to support prices, but the shipment is limited. The supply and demand are expected to increase from March to April, and the price is expected to rise first and then fall from March to May [19][20]. 3.11 Logs - Viewpoint: Supported by the cost side, the logs are oscillating strongly within the range. The outlook is oscillating, and it is recommended to operate within the range of 770 - 820 yuan/cubic meter [21]. - Logic: The increase in shipping costs and exchange rate changes drive up the outer - market quotation, which in turn drives up the domestic spot price. However, the demand recovery is weak, and the market may be under pressure after the arrival of a large number of logs [21]. 4. Commodity Index Data - On March 16, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2607.75, a decrease of 0.63%; the commodity 20 index was 2943.75, a decrease of 1.02%; the industrial product index was 2578.45, a decrease of 0.05%. - The agricultural product index on March 16, 2026, had a daily decline of 0.69%, a 5 - day increase of 1.32%, a 1 - month increase of 5.52%, and an increase of 5.14% since the beginning of the year [183][185].