需求预期走弱，新能源金属震荡整理

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The demand expectation for new energy metals is weakening, and they are in a state of shock consolidation. The supply - demand of lithium carbonate remains tight, while that of industrial silicon and polysilicon is generally loose. In the short term, the pessimistic demand expectation has pressured the price of lithium carbonate, but the actual supply - demand is tight. The polysilicon price is suppressed by inventory accumulation, and the price of industrial silicon is boosted by the expected cost increase. In the long - term, the polysilicon supply contraction path has changed, and its price is expected to fluctuate widely. The lithium ore production capacity is rising, and the expected supply - demand surplus is narrowing, which will push up the price center [2]. Summary by Catalog Industrial Silicon - Price Information: As of March 16, the price of oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 8650 yuan/ton, in Yunnan is 9300 yuan/ton; 421 in Xinjiang is 8850 yuan/ton, in Yunnan is 9750 yuan/ton [5]. - Inventory Data: As of last week, the domestic inventory is 437350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.4%; market inventory is 182500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%; factory inventory is 254850 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.3% [5]. - Production Data: In February, the industrial silicon output is 238,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 25.7%; the cumulative production in 2025 is 4.055 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7% [5]. - Export Data: In December, the export volume of industrial silicon is 59036 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; the cumulative export volume from January to December is 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [5]. - Main Logic: The valuation of industrial silicon is low, and the price rebounds in the short term under cost support. The power price in the northwest region fluctuates, and the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran may push up raw material prices. In terms of fundamentals, the supply in the southwest region is at a low level during the dry season, and the northwest plants' production is gradually recovering. The demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy industries is weak [5]. - Outlook: The silicon price will fluctuate under low valuation and cost support. In the long - term, the supply increase pressure will put pressure on the fundamentals [6]. Polysilicon - Price Information: On March 16, the average transaction price of N - type dense material is 45.5 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/kg [6]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: On March 16, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 10690 lots, with no month - on - month change [6]. - Import and Export Data: In December 2025, the export volume of polysilicon is about 1670.41 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to December is about 25115.57 tons. The import volume in December is about 1872.81 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to December is about 19051.01 tons [6]. - Main Logic: The polysilicon production in the southwest region is in the process of reduction during the dry season, and the output is at a low level. The demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the warehouse receipt number is increasing, which exerts pressure on the price. In the long - term, the supply is also contracting, and the future supply - demand may tighten, with the price showing a wide - range fluctuation [8]. - Outlook: The polysilicon price will fluctuate widely in the long - term due to weak demand and low supply [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Position Data: On March 16, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increases by 4.96% to 159620 yuan/ton, and the total position increases by 1663 lots to 618642 lots [9]. - Spot Price Data: On March 16, the morning spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 154200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4150 yuan/ton; the evening market price is 154500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1700 yuan/ton. The morning price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 151500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3750 yuan/ton; the evening price is 154500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1700 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts decreases by 10 lots to 36393 lots [9]. - Main Logic: The primary and terminal demands for lithium carbonate are differentiated. The supply in the first quarter of 2026 is relatively strong, and the demand is also good, maintaining a tight balance. The strong demand in March and the ban on lithium ore exports in Zimbabwe have boosted market sentiment, but the new energy vehicle sales from January to February are not optimistic, and the sales from March to April are crucial for the second - quarter supply - demand balance. If the power demand in March is still negative, the primary demand from April to May may be lower than expected [10]. - Outlook: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, but the demand shows signs of weakening, and the price is expected to fluctuate [10]. Market Monitoring - Commodity Index: On March 16, 2026, the comprehensive index is 2607.75, a decrease of 0.63%; the commodity 20 index is 2943.75, a decrease of 1.02%; the industrial product index is 2578.45, a decrease of 0.05% [49]. - New Energy Commodity Index: On March 16, 2026, the index is 515.70, with a daily decrease of 1.52%, a 5 - day decrease of 2.77%, a monthly increase of 4.38%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.18% [51].