贝森特：美国默许部分船只通过霍尔木兹

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Chinese economy had a good start in the first two months, providing support for the stock market from the molecular end. However, the situation between the US and Iran will suppress market risk appetite, while Chinese policies to cultivate the domestic market may form a certain degree of hedging. Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and remain optimistic in the medium - term [2][17]. - The bond market is affected by inflation concerns and better - than - expected economic data, showing a downward trend in shock. Short - term short - selling may be more cost - effective than long - buying [3][20]. - Steel prices will continue to fluctuate slightly stronger, but the upside space is limited due to weak terminal demand and uncertain infrastructure investment sustainability [4][24]. - The oil and fat market is strengthening. Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate between 9800 - 10000 yuan, following crude oil fluctuations before the confirmation or refutation of Indonesia's B50 policy [5][31]. - The sugar market is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the upside space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited due to the sales pressure of sugar mills [36]. - The soybean meal market is expected to decline today following the CBOT soybean futures limit - down. Future attention should be paid to the Middle East situation, China's purchase of US soybeans, and the actual arrival of Brazilian soybeans [39]. - The corn market is in a multi - factor game in the short - term. In the medium - and long - term, prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, but the upside is restricted by demand recovery and policy regulation [42]. - Platinum and palladium are expected to have weak performance in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of going long on platinum and shorting on palladium in the medium - term [44]. - Lead prices may have limited downside space due to cost support, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on the callback in the medium - term [45]. - Zinc prices are expected to enter a shock adjustment period in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the opportunity of buying on the callback in the medium - term [47]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be bullish in the short - term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [51]. - Copper prices may bottom out in shock in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long on dips. For arbitrage, it is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread operation between domestic and foreign markets [55]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [59]. - The price of liquefied petroleum gas is expected to fluctuate strongly in a wide range [62]. - The risk of asphalt supply interruption is increasing, which strongly supports the market price [63]. - Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the restart rhythm [66]. - Styrene supply is expected to continue to decline, and the styrene market will fluctuate strongly [69]. - The upper limit of urea 05 contract is restricted, and it is recommended that market participants replenish inventory based on rigid demand and reduce speculative operations [72]. - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the inflection point of energy prices in the medium - term [73]. - The glass market is expected to have large short - term fluctuations, but the rebound strength is expected to be weak [74]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that oil prices may be "well below" $80 per barrel in a few months. The gold market is under pressure due to the lack of direct upward momentum, and it is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Yellen said that the US默许部分船只 through the Strait of Hormuz, and the oil price has slightly declined. The US stock market has rebounded, but it is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [13][14][15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The consumer goods trade - in policy has driven sales of over 300 billion yuan. The Chinese economy had a good start in the first two months, providing support for the stock market. The stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and remain optimistic in the medium - term [16][17]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The economic data from January to February exceeded expectations. The central bank carried out 137.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is affected by inflation and economic data, and short - term short - selling may be more cost - effective [18][19][20]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's crude steel production from January to February decreased year - on - year. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short - term, but the upside space is limited [21][24][25]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The international steam coal market is inactive. The domestic and foreign coal prices are decoupled. The domestic coal price may rise passively if the conflict continues until May - June [26][27]. 3.2.3 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The fixed - asset investment from January to February increased year - on - year. The iron ore price is highly uncertain, and it is recommended to wait and see [28]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia is considering levying a "windfall tax" on commodities. The palm oil price is expected to fluctuate between 9800 - 10000 yuan, following crude oil fluctuations [29][30][31]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's port sugar inventory and India's sugar production data are released. The sugar market is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the upside space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited [32][35][36]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean exports in the first two weeks of March and the US soybean crushing data are released. The soybean meal market is expected to decline today, and future attention should be paid to relevant factors [37][38][39]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Brazil's corn production and the EU's corn import data are released. The corn market is in a multi - factor game in the short - term and is expected to stabilize and rebound in the medium - and long - term [40][41][42]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - Platinum and palladium prices declined. They are expected to have weak performance in the short - term, and it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of going long on platinum and shorting on palladium in the medium - term [43][44]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead inventory increased. The lead price may have limited downside space, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on the callback in the medium - term [45]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc inventory increased. The zinc price is expected to enter a shock adjustment period in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the opportunity of buying on the callback in the medium - term [46][47]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A new project of advanced battery materials is signed. The lithium carbonate price is expected to be bullish in the short - term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [48][50][51]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - There are labor strikes and production declines in the copper industry. The copper price may bottom out in shock in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the positive spread operation between domestic and foreign markets [52][54][55]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The semiconductor industry has a new wave of price increases. The tin price is expected to fluctuate weakly [57][58][59]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - India is negotiating to ensure the passage of LPG transport ships. The price of liquefied petroleum gas is expected to fluctuate strongly in a wide range [60][61][62]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt inventory decreased. The risk of asphalt supply interruption is increasing, which strongly supports the market price [62][63]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - An Iranian methanol plant has restarted. Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [64][65]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The pure benzene inventory decreased. The styrene supply is expected to continue to decline, and the styrene market will fluctuate strongly [66][67][69]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate increased. The upper limit of urea 05 contract is restricted, and it is recommended to replenish inventory based on rigid demand [70][71][72]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash inventory decreased slightly. Soda ash is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the inflection point of energy prices in the medium - term [73]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price was flat. The glass market is expected to have large short - term fluctuations, but the rebound strength is expected to be weak [74].