五矿期货早报|有色金属：有色金属日报-20260317

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Market pessimism eases, and the dollar index pulls back. The copper price rebounds after a decline. The short - term copper price may maintain a volatile trend due to factors such as the tense situation at the mine end and the improvement of domestic consumption [1][2]. - Aluminum: The overseas supply threat remains large, and the domestic downstream start - up rate continues to rise. The short - term aluminum price is expected to remain relatively strong [3][4]. - Lead: Although the short - term lead price is supported, there is still a possibility of further decline, and the follow - up situation of the resumption of production of recycling smelters and the sustainability of battery enterprise orders need to be observed [6][7]. - Zinc: The zinc industry maintains a weak status, and the zinc price has a risk of downward breakthrough [9][10]. - Tin: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the tin price is expected to mainly operate in a wide - range shock at a high level [11][12]. - Nickel: The supply and demand of nickel have improved, but due to short - term geopolitical risks and high inventory levels, the price is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. - Lithium carbonate: The terminal demand for lithium carbonate is resilient, and the supply has many uncertainties. The price callback has strong support, and attention should be paid to relevant factors in the future [18][19]. - Alumina: The short - term futures price may maintain a wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to potential driving factors [21][22]. - Stainless steel: Under the combined effect of supply pressure, moderate demand release, and cost support, the stainless steel price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [24][25]. - Cast aluminum alloy: The cost - end price support is strong, and the short - term price is expected to remain high [27][28]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - Market Quotes: The LME 3M copper contract rose 1.44% to $12,918/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,190 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 311,600 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by more than 20,000 tons [1]. - Strategy Views: The short - term copper price may maintain a volatile trend. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 99,600 - 101,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M copper is $12,800 - 13,000/ton [2]. Aluminum - Market Quotes: The LME 3M aluminum contract fell 1.37% to $3,392/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,970 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract position decreased by 10,000 tons to 679,000 tons, and the aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 35,000 tons [3]. - Strategy Views: The short - term aluminum price is expected to remain relatively strong. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,800 - 25,300 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M aluminum is $3,360 - 3,450/ton [4]. Lead - Market Quotes: The Shanghai lead index fell 1.47% to 16,342 yuan/ton, and the LME 3S lead fell $39.5 to $1,893.5/ton. The domestic lead social inventory increased by 2,400 tons to 80,100 tons [6]. - Strategy Views: Although the short - term lead price is supported, there is still a possibility of further decline, and the follow - up situation of the resumption of production of recycling smelters and the sustainability of battery enterprise orders need to be observed [7]. Zinc - Market Quotes: The Shanghai zinc index fell 0.98% to 23,934 yuan/ton, and the LME 3S zinc fell $17.5 to $3,271.5/ton. The domestic zinc social inventory increased by 5,100 tons to 236,200 tons [9]. - Strategy Views: The zinc industry maintains a weak status, and the zinc price has a risk of downward breakthrough [10]. Tin - Market Quotes: On March 16, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 373,360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2%. SHFE inventory decreased by 278 tons to 11,995 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 60 tons to 8,715 tons [11]. - Strategy Views: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the tin price is expected to mainly operate in a wide - range shock at a high level. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 420,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the overseas LME tin is $45,000 - 53,000/ton [12]. Nickel - Market Quotes: On March 16, the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 136,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39%. The price of nickel ore and nickel iron increased [14]. - Strategy Views: The supply and demand of nickel have improved, but due to short - term geopolitical risks and high inventory levels, the price is expected to fluctuate. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price this week is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M nickel contract is $16,000 - 20,000/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Quotes: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index fell 1.06%, and the LC2605 contract rose 4.96% [18]. - Strategy Views: The terminal demand for lithium carbonate is resilient, and the supply has many uncertainties. The price callback has strong support. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 150,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - Market Quotes: On March 16, the alumina index rose 0.46% to 2,976 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price rose 5 yuan/ton to 2,645 yuan/ton, and the futures inventory increased by 26,400 tons to 400,300 tons [21]. - Strategy Views: The short - term futures price may maintain a wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to potential driving factors. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,850 - 3,050 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - Market Quotes: The stainless steel main contract closed at 14,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49%. The social inventory decreased by 0.79% to 1,086,100 tons [24]. - Strategy Views: Under the combined effect of supply pressure, moderate demand release, and cost support, the stainless steel price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. The reference range for the main contract is 13,900 - 14,500 yuan/ton [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Quotes: The cast aluminum alloy price rebounded, and the AD2604 contract rose 0.74% to 23,830 yuan/ton. The domestic three - place aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased by 700 tons to 36,000 tons [27]. - Strategy Views: The cost - end price support is strong, and the short - term price is expected to remain high [28].