Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, start a bearish strategic allocation on crude oil, widen the Platts north - south different - oil - type price difference before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - WTI inter - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, since it already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profits on rallies [4]. - For urea, short on rallies. When the alternative valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term marginal positive support for demand [7]. - For rubber, the market expectation fluctuates more than the fundamentals. Trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. Consider opening or holding a long position in NR main contract and a short position in RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, in the short term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price will mainly rebound, but be cautious as it has risen too much recently [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, with the easing of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [19]. - For polyethylene, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread on rallies when the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases marginally [22]. - For polypropylene, in the short term, the geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [24]. - For PX, the load is expected to further decline, and it will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as it has risen too much recently [27]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to increase. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but be cautious as it has risen too much recently [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to continue to decline, imports are expected to decrease significantly, and the port inventory will gradually turn to de - stocking. The valuation of oil - chemical is at a historical low, but be cautious as it has risen too much recently [32]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Information: INE main crude oil futures rose 12.40 yuan/barrel, or 1.65%, to 765.50 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 86.00 yuan/ton, or 1.81%, to 4848.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 122.00 yuan/ton, or 2.18%, to 5729.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Strategy: Start a bearish strategic allocation on crude oil, widen the Platts north - south different - oil - type price difference before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - WTI inter - regional spread [2]. Methanol - Market Information: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 25 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 65 yuan/ton, in Henan by 20 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by 25 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 31.00 yuan/ton to 2837 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 158 yuan [4]. - Strategy: Since it already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profits on rallies [4]. Urea - Market Information: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hubei, and Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Hebei, Shanxi, and Northeast China remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 30 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 11 yuan/ton to 1900 yuan/ton [6]. - Strategy: Short on rallies. When the alternative valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term marginal positive support for demand [7]. Rubber - Market Information: The market is trading on the expectation and realization of refinery shutdowns. There may be a second - wave market due to the supply reduction of ethylene and aromatics downstream. The overall market changes rapidly. Bulls and bears have different views. The long - position holders of natural rubber RU believe that rubber production in Southeast Asia may be limited, the seasonality usually turns positive in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. The short - position holders believe that the macro - economic outlook is uncertain, supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. As of March 12, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 68.64%, up 2.23 percentage points from last week and down 0.45 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 76.69%, up 3.17 percentage points from last week and down 6.11 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel exports to the Middle East slowed down, and there was concentrated export to the EU. As of March 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 138.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7 million tons, or 1.21%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 93.8 million tons, an increase of 1.32%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 44.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.36 million tons to 69.01 million tons. In the spot market, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 15500 (- 100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 2000 (- 40) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 2010 (- 30) US dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 15400 (- 300) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 14700 (- 200) yuan [9][10][11]. - Strategy: The market expectation fluctuates more than the fundamentals. Trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. Consider opening or holding a long position in NR main contract and a short position in RU2609 [12]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC05 contract rose 125 yuan to 5849 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5800 (+ 130) yuan/ton, the basis was - 49 (+ 5) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 0 (+ 18) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2550 (0) yuan/ton, the price of semi - coke was 735 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 1150 (+ 150) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 682 (+ 12) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 81.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%; among them, the calcium - carbide method was 82.9%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%; the ethylene method was 77.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.6%. The overall downstream operating rate was 39.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. The in - factory inventory was 37.7 million tons (- 8.1), and the social inventory was 140.7 million tons (+ 0.3) [14]. - Strategy: In the short term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price will mainly rebound, but be cautious as it has risen too much recently [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The cost of East China pure benzene was 8455 yuan/ton, an increase of 245 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 8451 yuan/ton, an increase of 245 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was 4 yuan/ton, an increase of 82 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 10150 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 10146 yuan/ton, an increase of 146 yuan/ton; the basis was 4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 20.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.5 yuan/ton; the non - integrated plant profit of EB was - 229.45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 83.55 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 71.79%, a decrease of 2.32%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 16.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.91 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S was 40.79%, an increase of 10.34%; the PS operating rate was 51.50%, an increase of 2.10%; the EPS operating rate was 58.76%, an increase of 46.59%; the ABS operating rate was 69.50%, a decrease of 1.20% [18]. - Strategy: With the easing of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [19]. Polyethylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract was 8677 yuan/ton, an increase of 261 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8475 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The basis was - 202 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.76%. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 57.54 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.92 million tons, and the inventory of traders was 5.00 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 30%, a month - on - month increase of 1.38%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 305 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 34 yuan/ton [21]. - Strategy: Short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread on rallies when the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases marginally [22]. Polypropylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract was 8857 yuan/ton, an increase of 254 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8575 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. The basis was - 282 yuan/ton, a decrease of 229 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 68.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 68 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.49 million tons, the inventory of traders was 20.61 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.655 million tons, and the port inventory was 7.47 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 45.87%, a month - on - month increase of 9.13%. The LL - PP spread was - 180 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 551 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 16 yuan/ton [23]. - Strategy: In the short term, the geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [24]. PX - Market Information: The PX05 contract rose 162 yuan to 10180 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 404 yuan (+ 38). The Chinese PX load was 84.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.7%; the Asian load was 76.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.3%. Many domestic and overseas devices had load - reduction or shutdown. The PTA load was 77.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7%. In terms of imports, South Korea's PX exports to China in early March were 15.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8 million tons. The inventory at the end of January was 464 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1 million tons. The PXN was 213 US dollars (- 115), the South Korean PX - MX was 70 US dollars (- 14), and the naphtha cracking spread was 298 US dollars (+ 67) [26]. - Strategy: The load is expected to further decline, and it will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as it has risen too much recently [27]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA05 contract rose 48 yuan to 6982 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 292 yuan (+ 4). The PTA load was 77.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7%. The downstream load was 86.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.6%. The terminal texturing load increased by 12% to 74%, and the loom load increased by 6% to 64%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on March 6 was 262.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6 million tons. The processing fee on the disk decreased by 58 yuan to 304 yuan [28]. - Strategy: It is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to increase. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but be cautious as it has risen too much recently [29]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG05 contract rose 168 yuan to 4897 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 82 yuan (+ 17). The ethylene glycol load was 66.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.7%, among which the synthetic - gas method was 74.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4%; the ethylene - based load was 62.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6%. Many domestic and overseas devices had maintenance or load - reduction. The downstream load was 86.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.6%. The terminal texturing load increased by 12% to 74%, and the loom load increased by 6% to 64%. The import arrival forecast was 7.8 million tons, and the departure from East China ports on March 15 was 1.16 million tons. The port inventory was 101.1 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.7 million tons. The naphtha - based profit was - 3059 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 1810 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 1160 yuan. The cost of ethylene rose to 1150 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 550 yuan [31]. - Strategy: The load is expected to continue to decline, imports are expected to decrease significantly, and the port inventory will gradually turn to de - stocking. The valuation of oil - chemical is at a historical low, but be cautious as it has risen too much recently [32].
能源化工日报 2026-03-17-20260317
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-03-17 01:24