棉花：外盘走强20260317

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ICE cotton futures rose yesterday, boosted by the news that China issued a 300,000 - ton cotton processing trade import quota [3] - The domestic cotton spot trading remained sluggish, with spinning mills' procurement willingness temporarily weak, and the overall mainstream basis of spot cotton was stable. Some spinning mills had more new orders and full production schedules due to the Shanghai exhibition, and there were low inventories of regular and medium - high - count yarns in Xinjiang and inland spinning mills, with the operating rate significantly higher than the same period last year [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: - CF2605 closed at 15,480 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.42%, and the night - session closing price was 15,570 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.58%. Its trading volume was 630,024 lots, a decrease of 383,334 lots from the previous day, and the position was 1,149,608 lots, a decrease of 533 lots [1] - CY2605 closed at 21,485 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decrease of 0.37%, and the night - session closing price was 21,520 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.16%. Its trading volume was 12,915 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the position was 13,725 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - ICE cotton futures (ICE美棉5) closed at 68.44 cents/pound yesterday with a daily increase of 4.01% [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 12,495, a decrease of 11 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 293, an increase of 8 [1] - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 319, a decrease of 1 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 67, an increase of 253 [1] - Spot Price Data: - The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,744 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan or 0.30% from the previous day [1] - The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,683 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan or 0.30% from the previous day [1] - The price in Shandong was 16,943 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.06% from the previous day [1] - The price in Hebei was 16,925 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan or 0.08% from the previous day [1] - The 3128B index was 16,884 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day [1] - The Cotlook:A index was 75.75 cents/pound, an increase of 0.05 cents or 0.07% from the previous day [1] - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,312 yuan/ton, an increase of 112 yuan or 0.50% from the previous day [1] - Spread Data: - The CF5 - 9 spread decreased by 75 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with a change of 20 [1] - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot Situation: According to TTEB information, the mainstream basis of domestic cotton spot remained stable, with the mainstream sales basis of 2025/26 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29B (impurity within 3.5, micronaire value 4 and above) at CF05 + 1100 and above, and that of 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B (impurity within 3.5) at CF05 + 1250 - 1350, mostly at CF05 + 1350 and above, both for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation: According to TTEB information, the quotation of pure - cotton yarn remained stable, and spinning mills continued to reduce inventories. Affected by the Shanghai exhibition, some spinning mills had more new orders and full production schedules, and there were low inventories of regular and medium - high - count yarns in Xinjiang and inland spinning mills, with the operating rate significantly higher than the same period last year. The follow - up downstream order trend should be continuously monitored [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 1, indicating a "neutral" state according to the classification where the trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4][5]