纸浆：震荡偏弱20260317

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pulp industry is "oscillating weakly" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp market lacks substantial drivers with high port inventory on the supply - side and downstream paper mills' procurement being mainly for immediate needs. Attention should be paid to the procurement rhythm of downstream paper mills and marginal data of port inventory. The price of household paper is stable, and the key is to focus on raw material pulp price changes and paper mill equipment operation [4][5] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The daily - session closing price of pulp's main contract decreased from 5,272 yuan/ton to 5,232 yuan/ton, and the night - session closing price dropped from 5,280 yuan/ton to 5,136 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased by 70,943 lots to 312,959 lots, and the open interest of the 05 contract rose by 10,073 lots to 261,935 lots. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 2,384 tons to 191,616 tons, and the net position of the top 20 members decreased by 4,681 lots to - 54,630 lots [3] - Spread Data: The basis of "Yinxing - futures main contract" increased by 40 to 68, and that of "Jinyu - futures main contract (non - standard)" increased by 40 to - 632. The monthly spread of SP03 - SP05 increased by 24 to - 32 [3] - Spot Market: The domestic prices of coniferous pulp such as Beimu and Kailipu are 5,550 yuan/ton, and the international price of Yinxing is 710 dollars/ton. The domestic prices of broad - leaf pulp like Jinmu and Mingxing are 4,600 yuan/ton, and the international price of Mingxing is 620 dollars/ton. The domestic price of chemical mechanical pulp Kunhe is 3,800 yuan/ton, and the domestic price of natural pulp Jinxing is 4,850 yuan/ton with an international price of 620 dollars/ton [3] - Trend Intensity: The pulp trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak bearish view [3] 2. Industry News - Yesterday, the price of coniferous pulp fluctuated with the market, while the price of broad - leaf pulp was relatively stable. During this week's Shanghai Pulp Week industry meeting, market participants are cautious in operation and actual trading is light. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, with high port inventory on the supply side and downstream paper mills' procurement being mainly for immediate needs [4] - The price of household paper is stable, with general trading enthusiasm. The raw material pulp market is oscillating, and the stable price of broad - leaf pulp has a weak supporting effect on household paper prices. The terminal demand for household paper has not improved significantly, and some paper mills have slow inventory release [5]