宁证期货今日早评-20260317

Key Points of the Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market situation of various commodities is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. Different commodities show different trends, including short - term and medium - term price movements, and investors need to make corresponding decisions according to specific circumstances [2][4][5] 3. Summary by Commodity Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: To suppress oil prices, various parties are taking remedial measures, which can delay market panic and make up for the two - month production reduction loss of Gulf countries. The key lies in the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz. Short - term trading should be cautious, and a low - level long - biased trading idea should be maintained in the medium term before significant navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [9] - PTA: The terminal orders of TA are not ideal, and the downstream resistance is strong. The social inventory of PTA is expected to continue to accumulate. However, due to the continuous fermentation of geopolitical conflicts, the cost side is the main variable in the PTA market. Short - term trading should be cautious, and it should follow crude oil in the medium term [2] - Methanol: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is recovering, and the port inventory is decreasing. The inland methanol market is slightly weak, and the port methanol market is also weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly weakly in the short term [13][14] - PVC: In the short term, the supply of PVC is sufficient, the downstream demand is improving, and the industry inventory may decline. The market resists high prices, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13] - Palm Oil: Geopolitical risks exist, and the price of palm oil is driven up by crude oil. Indonesia may increase consumption and limit exports. The domestic spot inventory pressure is large, and the shipment is not good. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with strong support below [7] Metals - Aluminum: The shutdown of Bahrain Aluminium due to the Strait of Hormuz issue reflects the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the aluminum supply chain. If the strait is blocked for a long time, overseas supply contraction is expected to be further strengthened, and short - term aluminum volatility may increase [11] - Lead: The supply of primary lead shows regional differentiation, but the overall operating rate is high. The downstream inventory digestion is not as expected, and the lead price is expected to be under pressure in the short term [12] - Nickel: The signing of a long - term contract reflects the continuous investment in Indonesian nickel resources, but it has no substantial impact on short - term supply. Supply is expected to contract in the short term, but high inventory suppresses the price, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - Steel and Iron - related - Coke: If molten iron resumes production as expected, the coke fundamentals are healthy, and its price follows the cost - side coking coal. If geopolitical conflicts continue, it may follow energy prices; if they ease, it is expected to oscillate [2] - Rebar: In March, the supply and demand of the steel market are improving, but the demand recovery is slow, and the high - inventory pressure remains. Under the game of weak demand and high cost, the steel price may oscillate in the short term [4] - Manganese Silicon: The supply and demand of the manganese silicon market are loose, the upstream inventory is high, and there is resistance in cost transmission. There is obvious selling - hedging pressure on the futures price, and there is a risk of high - level correction [4] Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The lower support of the soybean meal contract is strong due to the strong US soybeans and rising shipping costs. The domestic oil mill inventory is rising, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high prices. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and investors should be cautious about chasing high prices [8] - Natural Rubber: The supply side has strong raw material prices, and the inventory is seasonally accumulating. The demand side has sufficient orders but shows structural differentiation. It should be traded with an oscillating idea [10][11] - Pig: The national pig price is oscillating at a low level, and there is still pressure on the breeding side to sell. However, there are signs of price stabilization in the short term. The feed cost supports the price, and the long - term downward space of the pig futures price is limited [6][7] Others - Two - year Treasury Bond: The continuous tender of treasury cash increases liquidity, which is beneficial to short - term bonds. However, the good economic fundamentals are negative for the bond market. Short - term bonds may oscillate at a high level, and the bond market as a whole is in a triangular oscillating convergence, waiting for policy guidance [5] - Gold: The war in the Middle East continues, inflation expectations are rising, and the need for interest rate cuts is suppressed. There is still a safe - haven sentiment, and the short - term downward space of gold is limited. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [5] - Silver: Sino - US trade negotiations improve risk preference. The rising oil price due to the Middle East war increases inflation expectations in the US and weakens the upward momentum of silver. It may further look for support downward and oscillate at a high level in the medium term [6] - Soda Ash: The float glass industry is relatively stable, and the inventory is decreasing. The domestic soda ash market oscillates steadily, with high production and inventory, and general demand. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [14]