铁矿石：近强远弱，5-9正套

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The iron ore market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, and a 5 - 9 positive spread arbitrage is recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of iron ore futures decreased by 2.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.31%. The I2605 contract had a closing price of 809.0 yuan/ton, with a position of 458,852 hands, a decrease of 12,644 hands [1] - Spot Price: Imported ore prices such as PB (61.5%), Jinbuba (61%), and Super Special (56.5%) decreased, while domestic ore prices such as Hanxing (66%) and Laiwu (65%) increased [1] - Basis and Spread: The basis of I2605 against Super Special and Jinbuba decreased. The spread of I2605 - I2609 decreased by 2.5, while the spread of I2609 - I2701 remained unchanged. The spread between different ore types also had corresponding changes [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Market Trend: Near - term, the escalation of the US - Iran conflict, increased energy costs, and potential restrictions on BHP iron ore procurement drove the rebound of near - term iron ore contract prices, with less impact on the long - term [1] - Government Policy: The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, adjusting the structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms. The GDP growth target is adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5% - 5.0%", and the scale of policy - based financial instruments is increased [1] - Steel Production: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 221.2 million tons, a decrease of 6.39 million tons compared with the previous period [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 1, indicating a relatively neutral view on the market trend [2]