格林大华期货早盘提示：焦煤、焦炭-20260317

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The short - term supply and demand of coking coal and coke remain relatively loose. The supply side has high - level production and high customs clearance of Mongolian coal, while the demand side sees a slight decline in downstream steel mill starts. However, due to strong macro sentiment and international energy prices, and the relatively low price of coking coal, there is insufficient downward momentum and space in the short term. The high customs clearance of Mongolian coal suppresses the upside, so the overall situation is regarded as range - bound [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - Yesterday, the main contract of coking coal Jm2605 closed at 1181.0, up 0.25% from the previous day's daytime close, and the main contract of coke J2605 closed at 1746.0, up 0.49% from the previous day's daytime close [1]. Important Information - The Premier of the State Council, Li Qiang, emphasized several key tasks, including promoting the construction of a unified national market, developing the service industry, advancing intelligent manufacturing, building infrastructure, focusing on people's livelihood, and dealing with external challenges [1]. - China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Paris, reaching new consensuses and agreeing to study the establishment of a cooperation mechanism to promote bilateral trade and investment [1]. - From January to February, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, excluding real estate development investment which increased by 5.2%, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.1%. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.3%, and total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8% [1]. - Shanghai lowered the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30% starting from March 16 [1]. Market Logic - The short - term supply and demand of coking coal and coke are still relatively loose. The domestic main coal - producing areas have basically resumed production, and the daily output of domestic raw coal remains high. The Mongolian coal port maintains high customs clearance. The downstream steel mill starts have declined slightly. With strong macro sentiment and international energy prices, and the relatively low price of coking coal, there is insufficient downward momentum and space in the short term. The high customs clearance of Mongolian coal suppresses the upside [1]. Trading Strategy - The main contract of coking coal is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1100 - 1200 [1].