国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260317

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out [2][4]. - Silver: Attention should be paid to liquidity contraction [2][5]. - Copper: The price is supported by the callback of the US dollar [2][10]. - Zinc: The price shows a weak and volatile trend [2][13]. - Lead: The price is under pressure due to the increase in inventory [2][17]. - Tin: The price is in an oscillatory adjustment [2][20]. - Aluminum: The price is in a range - bound oscillation; Alumina: Attention should be paid to the disturbances at the mine end; Cast aluminum alloy: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][24]. - Nickel: The accumulation of smelting inventory resonates with the macro - sentiment, and the shortage at the mine end supports the lower limit; Stainless steel: The fundamentals and the macro - environment exert pressure, and the current cost provides support [2][26]. Summary by Directory Gold - Fundamentals: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,153.06, with a daily decline of 2.45%, and the night - session closing price was 1144.20, with a decline of 0.22%. The trading volume increased by 25,719 compared with the previous day, and the position decreased by 13,351. The position of SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 18, and the inventory of Shanghai Gold decreased by 27 kilograms [5]. - News: The obstruction in the Strait of Hormuz has been alleviated, leading to a rise in US stocks and bonds, a 5% drop in US oil, and a 10% increase in Ethereum. Trump hinted at attacking the oil facilities on Kharg Island, and the US allies' response to the joint escort plan for the Strait of Hormuz was lukewarm [5][7]. Silver - Fundamentals: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 21854, with a daily increase of 0.86%, and the night - session closing price was 21546.00, with an increase of 1.53%. The trading volume decreased by 187,374 compared with the previous day, and the position decreased by 11,077. The position of SLV Silver ETF decreased by 34 [5]. - News: Similar to gold, including the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and Trump's remarks [5][7]. Copper - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 99,720, with a daily decline of 0.59%, and the night - session closing price was 100190, with an increase of 0.47%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index increased by 109,826, and the position increased by 17,776. The inventory of Shanghai Copper increased by 7,935, and the London Copper inventory decreased by 225 [10]. - News: The international oil price has fallen, alleviating inflation concerns and leading to a rise in US stocks. Mongolia is seeking to renegotiate the "unfair" business terms of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine. Zambia aims to triple its copper production by 2031. Rio Tinto suspended the operation of its Kennecott copper mine in Utah after an accident [10][12]. Zinc - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 23905, with a daily decline of 0.97%. The trading volume increased by 23045, and the position increased by 2126. The London Zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 3293.5, with a decline of 0.63%. The inventory of Shanghai Zinc increased by 12003, and the London Zinc inventory decreased by 400 [13]. - News: Trump hinted at attacking the oil facilities on Kharg Island and called for escort in the Strait of Hormuz. The London Metal Exchange's trading was interrupted for two hours, but the market price did not change significantly after the resumption [14][16]. Lead - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16315, with a daily decline of 1.45%. The trading volume increased by 28081, and the position increased by 2368. The London Lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 1903, with a decline of 1.68%. The inventory of Shanghai Lead increased by 535, and the London Lead inventory increased by 75 [17]. - News: The international oil price has fallen, alleviating inflation concerns and leading to a rise in US stocks [18]. Tin - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 373,360, with a daily decline of 3.18%, and the night - session closing price was 381,840, with an increase of 2.43%. The trading volume increased by 11,405, and the position decreased by 2,351. The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 278, and the London Tin inventory decreased by 60 [21]. - News: Trump called for the establishment of a Strait of Hormuz escort alliance. Iran warned of a decisive response if the Kharg Island facilities were attacked [23]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 25170, with a decrease of 210 compared with T - 1. The trading volume increased by 105097, and the position increased by 117111. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2965, with an increase of 9 compared with T - 1. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23830, with an increase of 175 compared with T - 1 [24]. - News: China and the US are considering establishing a working mechanism to promote bilateral trade and investment cooperation. Indonesia is considering imposing a "windfall tax" on commodities [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 136,400, with a decrease of 530 compared with T - 1. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,120, with a decrease of 70 compared with T - 1 [26]. - News: Indonesia will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026. Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala. There were various incidents in the nickel industry, such as landslides in Indonesia and production adjustments in Cuba [26][30].