对二甲苯：短期震荡市；PTA：短期震荡市；MEG：短期震荡市

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term market for p - xylene (PX), purified terephthalic acid (PTA), and monoethylene glycol (MEG) is a volatile market, and the medium - term is still bullish [1][9][10] Core Viewpoints - For PX, with the intraday correction of crude oil, PX follows suit. In the short - term, it is a volatile market, and in the medium - term, it is still bullish. One should not chase high prices but buy on dips. The supply is affected by the unplanned maintenance of a 100 - million - ton PX device in South Korea, and the demand side shows that some PTA plants reduce their loads while polyester profits expand smoothly. The aromatics blending oil economy recovers. The strategy suggests focusing on the 9000 - 12000 range and going long on PX and short on PTA [9] - For PTA, with the intraday correction of crude oil and PX, it is a short - term volatile market and medium - term bullish. One should not chase high prices but buy on dips. The supply side sees some PTA plants reducing their loads, and on the demand side, the坯布 inventory is continuously decreasing, but downstream orders are cautious. The polyester load has recovered to 87.2%, and the load estimates for March and April are both reduced by 2.5%. The profit transmission is smooth. The 05 - contract processing fee on the futures market has dropped to 350 yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee fluctuates greatly [9] - For MEG, it is a short - term volatile market and medium - term bullish. One should not chase high prices. The supply side has a significant reduction in the load of many naphtha cracking units, and the domestic ethylene glycol operating rate has dropped from 80% to 66%. The overall supply has decreased by more than 20%. On the demand side, the坯布 inventory is continuously decreasing, but downstream orders are cautious due to high - level fluctuations and chaotic quotes of raw materials. The polyester load has recovered to 87.2%, and the average monthly load estimates for March and April are both reduced by 2.5%, and the polyester load will stabilize later. The profits of multiple processes such as coal - based and oil - based are differentiated, and the spot and futures prices of ethylene glycol strengthen with the cost [10][11] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures contracts yesterday were 10180, 6982, 4897, 8368, and 770.5 respectively, with price increases of 162, 48, 168, 92, and 19.7, and price increase rates of 1.62%, 0.69%, 3.55%, 1.11%, and 2.62% respectively [2] - The month - spread closing prices of PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4, and SC2 - 3 yesterday were 578, 292, 82, - 166, and - 2.5 respectively, with price increases of 42, 4, 17, 22, and - 2 respectively [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent yesterday were 1294.67 dollars/ton, 6960 yuan/ton, 4855 yuan/ton, 1052.5 dollars/ton, and 103.69 dollars/barrel respectively, with price increases of 21 dollars/ton, 40 yuan/ton, 183 yuan/ton, - 7.25 dollars/ton, and 0.23 dollars/barrel respectively [2] - The spot processing fees of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread yesterday were 214.58, 280.7, 5.4, 1022.41, and - 4.34 respectively, with price changes of - 113.5, 36.78, 15.57, 515.44, and 0 respectively [2] Fundamental Data - PX: The price of naphtha rose at the end of the session, and the current estimated price of April MOPJ is 949 dollars/ton CFR. On March 16, the PX price rose, and a May Asian spot was traded at 1291. The Asian xylene price rose continuously on March 16, following the rise of the Chinese futures market. A 100 - million - ton PX device in South Korea is planned to be shut down for maintenance at the end of this month, and the restart time is to be determined [3][5] - PTA: A 4.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China has recently reduced its load to 50% from the previous 80%, and a 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China has currently reduced its load to 90% [5] - MEG: A 400,000 - ton/year MEG device in Iran has been restarted, but the shipping plan is not clear; another 445,000 - ton/year MEG device in Iran is planned to resume production within this week. A 400,000 - ton/year syngas - based ethylene glycol device in Inner Mongolia is planned to restart around the second quarter of this year [6] - Polyester: A 200,000 - ton polyester device in Shaoxing started shutdown maintenance on the 15th. On March 16, the sales of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories were highly differentiated, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 47% by around 3:00 pm. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on March 16 was still light, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 20% by around 3:30 pm. The weekend sales - to - production ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was generally light, with an average sales - to - production ratio of just over 10% in two days [6][7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [8]