华宝期货晨报铝锭-20260317

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For building materials, it is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with the price center moving down and showing a weak operation [1][2] - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to remain high in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - sentiment [3] Summary of Different Sections Building Materials - In the Yun - Gui region, short - process construction steel enterprises' shutdown and maintenance time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui Province: one mill started to shut down on January 5th, and most of the other mills will shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - Building materials continued to oscillate downward yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, causing the price center to move down continuously. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [2] Aluminum Ingots - Overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has declined. Due to energy, logistics, and geopolitical factors in Europe, the Middle East, etc., some production capacities have entered the cycle of production reduction or shutdown, strengthening the expectation of global supply - side contraction; domestic electrolytic aluminum maintains stable operation, and the overall supply side is stable [2] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 2.4 percentage points to 61.9% compared with the previous week, continuing the post - festival recovery trend, with all sectors increasing compared with the previous week, and the industry has generally entered the normal production rhythm [2] - The power grid investment has entered the concentrated delivery period, the aluminum cable sector is strong, the operating rate has increased by 2 more percentage points to 65%, the demand for UHV and overhead lines is strong, and the enterprise production schedule has covered March, showing a clear high - level operation trend [2] - The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 72.9%. There are both the recovery of demand in the traditional peak season and the short - term support of battery foils, but the Middle East war situation has dragged down air - conditioner exports, affecting the production schedule of air - conditioner foils and restricting the further improvement space [2] - High aluminum prices and macro uncertainties are continuously suppressing the release elasticity of demand, and the quality of the "Golden March" traditional peak season remains to be seen [2] - On Monday, the inventory of aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas increased by 18,500 tons compared with the previous day, and all three regions showed a trend of inventory accumulation. In the short term, after the Spring Festival, aluminum ingots have continued seasonal inventory accumulation. Affected by the market's bullish sentiment, it is expected that the premium and discount will continue to shrink [2] - Although the domestic social inventory continues to accumulate, the current Middle East geopolitical situation is the focus of global attention. The geopolitical conflict situation is changeable, the risk premium of the global aluminum supply chain still exists, and the price volatility has increased. The overseas price support is strong, while the domestic market is in a stage of high inventory and weak reality, with weaker upward momentum than overseas, and the Shanghai - London ratio has decreased [3]