碳酸锂：供需博弈区间宽幅震荡，成材：重心下移偏弱运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of supply - demand game and will experience wide - range oscillations within a certain range [2][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - The futures market of lithium carbonate continued to be weak yesterday. The main contract oscillated upwards in the afternoon and closed at 159,620 yuan/ton, with shrinking trading volume and continuous decline in positions. The market sentiment was cautious. The average spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 156,500 yuan/ton [3] Supply - side Situation - Last week, raw material prices were differentiated (spodumene prices generally increased, while lepidolite and amblygonite prices decreased) and remained at a high level. The SMM operating rate rose to 53.41%, and the total output increased to 23,426 tons (+836 tons). In March, imports from Chile were sufficient, supplementing the domestic supply. Overall supply steadily increased, strengthening the medium - term expectation of supply surplus [4] Demand - side Situation - The production schedule expectation in March was optimistic, but downstream acceptance of high prices was low. Last week, the production and inventory of ternary lithium - iron phosphate increased, and the production and sales of energy - storage cells were booming with low inventory, which was a structural highlight. However, downstream buyers mainly replenished inventory at low prices, forming a tug - of - war with upstream price - holding [4] Inventory Situation - Last week, the SMM four - location social inventory decreased to 42,500 tons (-490 tons), the sample weekly inventory decreased to 99,000 tons, at a relatively low level. The total inventory days decreased to 27.8 days, maintaining a tight - balance pattern overall. Refineries continued to reduce inventory, and downstream inventory increased to 45,600 tons [4] Macro - policy Impact - Internationally, the 15% temporary tariff policy of the US White House is still within the window period, which is a phased positive for demand. The tense situation between the US and Iran continues, and the geopolitical risk premium still exists, disturbing the market sentiment. The weakening of the global interest - rate cut expectation puts pressure on the non - ferrous metals sector. Domestically, the subsidy for car trade - ins and the battery export tax rebate (officially implemented on April 1st, currently in the last window period) stimulate terminal consumption. The management method for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries optimizes the domestic supply structure in the long term and raises the cost support center. The development of Qinghai salt lakes, the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and the Central Economic Work Conference support the long - term supply - demand balance. The 2026 government work report mentioned zero - carbon parks/factories, which is expected to become the second growth curve for energy storage [5]