美豆跌停，国内豆系走势偏稳

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite the overnight limit - down of US soybeans with a nearly 6% single - day drop, the domestic soybean complex did not follow the sharp decline. The price of domestic soybean futures is expected to remain strong, while the price of soybean meal futures will fluctuate more due to market sentiment, and a strategy of buying low and selling high is recommended [4][6] 3. Summary of Each Section Market Performance - Overnight, US soybeans hit the limit - down, dropping nearly 6% in a single day. The domestic soybean complex did not follow the sharp decline. The main soybean contract first fell and then rebounded in the morning session, with a slight decline, and the decline of the main soybean meal contract narrowed to around 1%. This week, the main soybean 2605 contract hit a new two - year high, and the main soybean meal 2605 contract also touched a recent high but then adjusted downward. Both spot prices continued to rise [4] Supply - side Factors - Domestic Soybean Inventory: As of March 13, the remaining domestic soybean inventory continued to decline. The remaining grain ratios in Heilongjiang, Anhui, Henan, and Shandong decreased month - on - month, but the national remaining grain ratio was higher than the same period last year. There was no state - reserve soybean auction [4] - Soybean Arrival at Oil Mills: Due to the US - Iran conflict and the possible postponement of Trump's visit to China, the arrival of imported soybeans at oil mills decreased, and the port soybean inventory also declined. As of March 13, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 1.684 million tons, and the port soybean inventory was 5.489 million tons, both showing month - on - month decreases [5] - US Soybean Situation: After continuous increases, US soybeans experienced a sharp decline. The reasons included the deadlock in the US - Iran conflict, the possible postponement of Trump's visit to China, and uncertainties in Sino - US trade. The expected increase in the planting area of new US soybeans was also a concern, with the previous estimate from the US Agricultural Outlook Forum being 85 million acres (a year - on - year increase of 4.7%) [5] - Soybean Meal Inventory: The operating rate of oil mills recovered, and the soybean meal inventory decreased. As of March 13, the operating rate of oil mills was 54.23%, showing a month - on - month increase. The oil mill soybean inventory was 5.486 million tons, showing a month - on - month decrease. The soybean meal production was 1.556 million tons, the oil mill soybean meal inventory was 627,000 tons, and the unfulfilled soybean meal contracts were 3.889 million tons, all showing month - on - month decreases [5][6] Demand - side Factors - The feed demand is currently strong due to high livestock and poultry inventories. However, in the pig - breeding industry, pig prices continued to fall, and breeding losses widened. In the poultry - breeding industry, egg prices declined, and breeding losses also increased. Although the current high inventory supports feed demand, long - term capacity reduction may occur due to losses, which is unfavorable for the long - term growth of feed demand [6] Market Outlook - The sales of domestic soybeans are slow at high prices, and the remaining inventory continues to decline. The market price remains strong, and it is expected that the soybean price trend will continue to be strong. The uncertainty of Trump's visit to China increases, the arrival of domestic soybeans decreases, there is no auction, the operating rate of oil mills recovers, and the soybean meal inventory decreases. Market sentiment will dominate, and soybean meal prices will fluctuate more. A strategy of buying low and selling high is recommended [6]