市场快讯：几内亚收紧铝土矿供应，氧化铝偏强运行

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Guinea, the world's largest bauxite exporter, plans to tighten bauxite supply rules to curb the continuous decline in bauxite prices. The alumina 05 contract rose after the news on the night of March 16 [4]. - The bauxite shipping volume from Guinea has increased significantly year - on - year, and port inventories remain high. The cost of imported bauxite and alumina production is low, and profits have recovered. The supply of alumina is expected to be loose, and downstream demand for alumina has limited growth, with high inventories to be reduced [4]. - In the long term, the game between upstream and downstream may intensify, but in the short term, the contradiction is limited due to abundant domestic bauxite supply and weak alumina production [4]. - The alumina price is at the bottom, and the market is pricing in the current situation of loose supply and limited growth of electrolytic aluminum capacity. The cost of alumina will be supported by the rise in caustic soda this month, and the bottom is becoming clear. However, the upward space is currently limited by the fundamentals [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Event & Market - On March 16, Guinea plans to tighten bauxite supply rules. The alumina 05 contract initially weakened with caustic soda and electrolytic aluminum in the night session and then rose to close at 2989 [4]. Alumina Fundamentals - Guinea's bauxite shipping volume has increased significantly year - on - year, port inventories are high, the price of Guinea's trihydrate bauxite has risen slightly, and the cost of imported bauxite and alumina production is low with profit recovery [4]. - After the Spring Festival, the alumina production capacity utilization has decreased slightly. Due to the continuous release of alumina production capacity in 2026 and the expectation of improved profits, the supply is expected to be loose. The downstream electrolytic aluminum production capacity is restricted, and the demand for alumina has limited growth, with high inventories to be reduced [4]. Impact - Guinea is the country with the largest bauxite reserves, production, and exports in the world. It tries to control supply to stabilize prices and enhance its pricing power through measures such as limiting production and exports and increasing export tariffs [4]. - In the long term, the game between upstream and downstream may intensify, but in the short term, the contradiction is limited due to abundant domestic bauxite supply and weak alumina production [4]. Operation Suggestions - The alumina price is at the bottom. Unilateral trading is recommended to participate at low prices, or use the option strategy of selling put options to express the view of bottom support [5].