金融期货早评-20260317

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January - February 2026, China's economy achieved a robust start, with core economic indicators exceeding expectations. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern has begun to reverse. The production side showed excellent performance, and the demand side's recovery momentum was also beyond expectations. However, there are still core short - boards in economic recovery, such as weak consumption of large - scale durable goods like cars and low real - estate sales [2]. - The conflict in the Persian Gulf continues to escalate, which has a significant impact on the global market. Gold and industrial metals have shown different trends. Gold's short - term correction is due to liquidity stampede under extreme panic, while industrial metals' differentiation is due to the rigidity difference in the industrial chain and supply chain [2]. - For various commodities, different trends and investment suggestions are presented based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions, such as the expected price range and investment strategies for lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and other products [8][9][10]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - Macro: China's economy achieved a "good start", and the economic data from January to February showed that the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8%. The real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year. The global market focus is on the escalating Persian Gulf geopolitical situation [1][2]. - Renminbi Exchange Rate: The RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate moderately due to China's good economic start and policy support. Short - term export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.93, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 6.85 [2][3][4]. - Stock Index: The Middle East crisis is expected to ease, which may drive the stock index to repair. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index performing relatively well [4][5]. - Treasury Bonds: The treasury bonds were under pressure due to rising oil prices and improved economic data. The short - term bullish factors for the bond market are insufficient, and attention should be paid to whether they can stabilize. Short - term long positions are advised to wait for high - selling opportunities, and if the market continues to decline, they can buy at low prices [6][7]. Commodities New Energy - Lithium Carbonate: The bottom support is solid. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely between 140,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton, and the long - term value support from the industry fundamentals remains stable [8][9]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: They are in a range - bound state. The industry is at the bottom of the current production cycle, and attention should be paid to the improvement of the supply - demand pattern and the "anti - involution" process [10][11][12]. Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum Industry Chain: The supply of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East is a concern. The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is dominated by the war situation, and long positions or call options can be held. Alumina has mixed long and short news, and it is recommended to wait and see. Casting aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum, and attention can be paid to the price difference between it and aluminum [14][15][16]. - Copper: Attention should be paid to the increase in copper price volatility. For industrial customers, pay attention to the replenishment opportunity when the price drops to the 98,000 - 99,000 range; for speculative customers, pay attention to the pressure around 100,000 and the support in the above - mentioned range [16][18][19]. - Zinc: It is weak and volatile, and the upward pressure is high, waiting for the impact of energy costs [19]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel: Nickel is weak in the short term and is expected to be strong in the medium term. Stainless steel has limited logical changes, and attention should be paid to the demand release rhythm [19][20][21]. - Tin: It is weak in the short term and the center of gravity is upward in the long term [22]. - Lead: It is expected to fluctuate and gradually stop falling [22]. Oils and Fats & Feeds - Oilseeds: The short - term emotional high point has appeared. The large - supply logic in the medium term remains unchanged, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to be repaired [24][25]. - Oils: The oil market follows the trend of crude oil and is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation [25][26][27]. Energy and Oil & Gas - SC: The geopolitical situation dominates the pricing logic. The crude oil price fluctuates greatly, and the focus this week is on the actual passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz and the development of the US - Iran conflict [28][29]. - Fuel Oil: The high - level fluctuation continues, and the short - term strong pattern in the Asian fuel oil market is expected to continue [29][30]. - Asphalt: The short - term price is supported, but the demand is limited. Attention should be paid to position control and combined strategies [31]. Precious Metals - Platinum & Palladium: They are oscillating strongly. In the long term, the bull market foundation remains, but short - term adjustments due to delayed interest - rate cut expectations should be vigilant. Attention should be paid to the impact of the FOMC meeting and other factors [32][33]. - Gold & Silver: They are oscillating weakly at a low level. Strategically, it is still recommended to be bullish on precious metals in the long term, and attention should be paid to the support levels [33][34][35]. Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: The pulp futures are expected to fluctuate widely in the short and medium term, and the offset paper futures are expected to fluctuate within a range [37][38]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: They are expected to be oscillating strongly before the Strait of Hormuz issue is resolved, but the unilateral fluctuation is large, and risks should be noted [38][39][40]. - PP & Propylene: The short - term supply pressure of PP is limited, and propylene is expected to be strong in the future. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz [40][41][42]. - Plastic: The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is suppressed by high prices. The market is mainly affected by news, and attention should be paid to the Middle East situation [43][44]. - Rubber: The synthetic rubber may maintain a strong wide - range oscillation, and natural rubber is expected to stabilize in oscillation. Specific investment strategies are provided [45][50][72]. - Glass & Soda Ash: Soda ash has high supply pressure, and glass has high inventory risks. The price is affected by multiple factors [51][52]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: The cost of furnace materials supports the steel price, but the high inventory of hot - rolled coils limits the price increase. The steel price is expected to rebound in the short term, but the rebound height is limited [51][52]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price is short - term strong, but the supply - demand pattern is still oversupplied. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices [53][54][55]. - Coking Coal & Coke: The supply - demand contradiction may deteriorate further. The coal - coke price has bottom support but is restricted by the oversupply problem [55][56][57]. - Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese: The cost support is increasing, but the upward space is limited due to weak downstream demand and high inventory pressure [57][58]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Hogs: The pig price is supported by secondary fattening sentiment but lacks upward driving force. It is recommended to sell call options on the main hog contract [59]. - Cotton: The cotton price is supported by the supply - demand situation in this and the next year. The import quota issuance may lead to a short - term correction, but the price is still likely to rise [60][61][62]. - Sugar: The sugar price may oscillate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of ethanol and oil prices [62][63]. - Eggs: The egg price is expected to rise in the long term due to increasing demand and rising costs. It is recommended to sell call options on the main egg contract [63][64][65]. - Apples: The apple futures are supported by fundamentals and delivery logic, and the 05 contract is expected to maintain a strong oscillation [73][74]. - Jujubes: The jujube price is under pressure due to sufficient supply and weak demand, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [74][75]. - Logs: The inventory decline reduces the pressure on the futures price, and the import cost increase provides support. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [75][76].