1-2月航司量价齐升，等待油价企稳

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation transportation industry [2]. Core Insights - The industry is expected to experience a supply-demand improvement cycle, with a positive outlook for medium to long-term growth despite short-term concerns regarding oil prices and geopolitical tensions [6]. - The Spring Festival data for 2026 has set a solid foundation for annual demand, with passenger load factors and average ticket prices showing positive year-on-year growth [6][7]. - The three major airlines and Spring Airlines have seen a net reduction of 10 aircraft, indicating a low growth rate in supply, which is expected to support revenue improvement [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In January and February 2026, the aviation sector benefited from the Spring Festival, recording increases in both volume and price, with ASK and RPK up by 5.6% and 7.5% respectively, and passenger load factor increasing by 1.5 percentage points to 85.3% [7]. - The average domestic economy class ticket price increased by 4.2% year-on-year during the same period [7]. Airline Performance - The three major airlines (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) reported a steady increase in capacity, with ASK up by 5.6% and load factor rising to 84.9% [7]. - International routes showed particularly strong performance, with ASK increasing by 11.6% and load factor up by 2.2 percentage points to 82.6% [7]. Financial Projections - The report highlights several airlines with target prices and "Buy" ratings, including: - Air China (753 HK) with a target price of 9.20 [5] - China Eastern Airlines (670 HK) with a target price of 6.85 [5] - China Southern Airlines (1055 HK) with a target price of 7.60 [5] - The report anticipates a continued recovery in profitability driven by improved demand and reduced supply growth, with specific profit forecasts for 2025-2027 for various airlines [23][24][22]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - Rising oil prices are expected to impact airline costs, with fuel costs accounting for 32.1% of operating costs for the three major airlines in the first half of 2025 [9]. - Despite the cost pressures, opportunities may arise for Chinese airlines on international routes due to reduced competition from transit hubs in the Middle East [9]. Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on airlines that are well-positioned to benefit from the expected industry recovery, with a particular emphasis on those with strong domestic and international route networks [23][24].