Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of the company to "Hold" with a target price of HKD 70.0, reflecting a potential upside of 5.2% from the current price of HKD 66.6 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2025 is projected to grow by 30% year-on-year, but adjusted net profit is expected to decline by 3.4% to RMB 660 million, which is below expectations. The stock price increased by over 8% on the first trading day after the earnings announcement, primarily due to short covering [1]. - There is significant uncertainty regarding the company's performance in 2026, particularly due to reliance on the top four IPs, which accounted for 81% of total revenue in 2025. The growth potential of these IPs remains uncertain [6]. - The report expresses optimism about the company's overseas market growth, citing a well-established team and a strong IP portfolio, with new IPs planned for launch in 2026 that are expected to perform well in Western markets [6]. - The report highlights concerns about the company's profitability, with a projected decline in gross margin due to the introduction of lower-priced products and increased costs associated with new IPs. However, management anticipates a gradual improvement in gross margin in 2026 [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 2,241 million in 2024, RMB 2,913 million in 2025, RMB 3,636 million in 2026, RMB 4,390 million in 2027, and RMB 5,187 million in 2028, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 155.6%, 30.0%, 24.8%, 20.7%, and 18.2% respectively [8][10]. - Core net profit is expected to reach RMB 582 million in 2024, RMB 675 million in 2025, RMB 859 million in 2026, RMB 1,073 million in 2027, and RMB 1,304 million in 2028, with growth rates of 683.1%, 16.1%, 27.2%, 24.9%, and 21.5% respectively [8][10]. - The report notes a significant reduction in the 2026 core net profit forecast to RMB 860 million, down 27.2% from previous estimates, reflecting a more cautious outlook [11].
布鲁可：2026年业绩不确定性可能导致估值持续承压，下调至“持有”-20260317