申万期货品种策略日报-天胶-20260317

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber is in the seasonal low - production stage. The domestic production areas are still in the off - season, but new rubber tapping is expected to start gradually in late March. The Thai production area is in the low - production season, which generally lasts until May. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao, China, continues to accumulate. The short - term supply - side elasticity weakens, and the raw rubber price is relatively firm. The full - steel tire production starts smoothly. Although the crude oil has large fluctuations recently, the natural rubber trend is relatively independent, and the short - term external influence weakens. It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate and strengthen [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR were 16,870, 13,495, and 15,665 respectively. The price changes were 105, 175, and - 20, with percentage changes of 0.63%, 1.31%, and - 0.13% respectively. The trading volumes were 278,101, 70,080, and 204,453, and the open interests were 134,869, 64,390, and 66,508 respectively, with open - interest changes of - 5436, - 3283, and - 1146 [2] - Spreads: The current spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR are 3375, 1205, and - 2170 respectively, with changes of - 70, 125, and 195 [2] - Basis: The current RU basis, mixed - RU, and smoke - sheet - RU are - 170, - 1330, and 3030 respectively, with previous values of - 165, - 1005, and 3035 [2] Spot Market - Domestic Spot: The current prices of whole - milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming are 16,600, 16,700, and 16,700 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.51%, 0.51%, and 0.51%. The current prices of smoke - sheet rubber in Shandong and Shanghai are 19,900, with a percentage change of 0.61%. The current prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan are 15,540 and 16,500 respectively, with percentage changes of - 1.40% and - 0.45% [2] - Downstream Spot: The current prices of Thai smoke - sheet, Thai cup - rubber, and Thai latex are 74.1, 60.65, and 72.3 respectively, with percentage changes of 2.11%, 1.22%, and 1.83% [2]