2026年1-2月宏观数据分析：宏观经济保持平稳，物价指数延续回升

Economic Overview - The macroeconomic environment in early 2026 remains stable, with a recovery in the price index and a high growth rate in industrial added value[3] - The manufacturing PMI in February is at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight decline in manufacturing activity[5] - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.3% year-on-year in February, while the producer price index (PPI) fell by 0.9%[10] Trade and Investment - Total import and export value for January-February 2026 reached $1,099.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21%[16] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 52,721 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.8%[32] - Real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing compared to the previous year[32] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 86,079 billion yuan in January-February, growing by 2.8% year-on-year, indicating weak consumer demand[29] - The sales area of new commercial housing fell by 13.5% year-on-year, reflecting a continued downturn in the real estate market[33] Monetary Policy and Credit - The M2 money supply increased by 9% year-on-year, while the M1 money supply grew by 5.9%, indicating a slight recovery in monetary activity[27] - Social financing scale stock was 451.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%[24] Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment in 2026 is expected to be better than in 2025, with potential for recovery in the real estate market and overall economic growth[44] - Continued implementation of proactive macro policies is necessary to enhance effective demand and support economic recovery[3]