2026年03月17日申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Although there are short - term disturbances, the long - term bullish logic remains intact [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: For platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610), the current prices are 532.80, 529.45, and 525.95 respectively, with decreases of - 19.25, - 21.10, and - 24.75 compared to the previous closing prices, and the decline rates are - 3.49%, - 3.83%, and - 4.49% respectively. For palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610), the current prices are 398.55, 397.60, and 393.80 respectively, with decreases of - 17.60, - 14.50, and - 19.45 compared to the previous closing prices, and the decline rates are - 4.23%, - 3.52%, and - 4.71% respectively [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The open interest for platinum and palladium futures is 12856 and 4361 respectively, and the trading volumes are 6410, 177, 25 for platinum futures and 3041, 86, 104 for palladium futures [1] - Spot Premium and Discount: The spot premium and discount for platinum futures are - 4.15, - 0.8, 2.7, and for palladium futures are - 8.55, - 7.6, - 3.8 [1] Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The previous closing prices of Shanghai platinum, London platinum, Chow Tai Fook platinum, and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 528.65 yuan/gram, 2118.00 dollars/ounce, 798.00 yuan/gram, and 960.00 yuan/gram respectively. The price changes are - 12.70, 41.00, - 51.00, and 0.00 respectively, and the change rates are - 0.023%, 0.020%, - 0.060%, and 0.000% respectively. The previous closing prices of Chinese palladium and Russian palladium are 390.00 yuan/gram and 4200.66 rubles/gram respectively, with price changes of - 10.00 and - 34.56 and change rates of - 0.025% and - 0.008% respectively [1] - Price Ratios: The current values of platinum/palladium, Shanghai platinum/London platinum, pt2608 - pt2606, pt2610 - pt2606, Chinese palladium/Russian palladium, and pd2608 - pd2606 are 1.36, 1.08, - 3.35, - 6.85, 1.01, and - 0.95 respectively, and the previous values are 1.35, 0.26, - 3.45, - 6.40, 3.15, and 4.00 respectively [1] Inventory - Platinum and Palladium Inventory: The current NYMEX platinum inventory is 582,440.79 ounces, the registered warehouse receipts are 313,567.94 ounces, the Shanghai Gold Exchange turnover is 19,668.18 ten - thousand yuan, and the trading volume is 372.00 kilograms. The current NYMEX palladium inventory is 200,716.01 ounces, and the registered warehouse receipts are 164,229.68 ounces. There is no change in inventory compared to the previous value [1] Related Derivatives and Macroeconomic Indicators - Macroeconomic Indicators: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P 500 index, US Treasury yield, Nasdaq index, Dow Jones index, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 99.80, 6,699.38, 4.23, 22,374.18, 46,946.41, and 6.91 respectively, with changes of - 0.70, 67.19, - 0.05, 268.82, 387.94, and 0.00 respectively compared to the previous values [1] - Precious Metal Derivatives: The current values of Shanghai gold futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 1118.34, 1121.50, 1124.70 respectively, with decreases of - 14.66, - 14.40, - 14.06 compared to the previous closing prices. The current values of Shanghai silver futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 20380.00, 20301.00, 20249.00 respectively, with decreases of - 723, - 622, - 598 compared to the previous closing prices [1] Macroeconomic News - Geopolitical Events: Military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran have disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - Fed Personnel Changes: US President Trump has nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. However, some senators oppose the nomination. Warsh's policy stance is dovish but not as expected, and the nomination process and subsequent policy independence are uncertain [2][4] - Fed Interest Rate Policy: The Fed has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point rate cuts, which is in line with market expectations. Fed chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut [2] - China's Central Bank Policy: The People's Bank of China has held a 2026 payment and settlement work meeting, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system and strengthening regulatory measures [3]